{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}Forecast_PR
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\mmak\Desktop\Forecast_PR.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}10 May 2016, 11:12:17
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***Using Out Party
. *Models for Table 1
. probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1608.9247}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -1038.116}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1023.8849}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1023.8408}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1023.8408}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      4000
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}5{txt}){col 67}= {res}    683.03
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1023.8408{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.3636

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        vote{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}eucdist114 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.186104{col 26}{space 2} .1547852{col 37}{space 1}   -7.66{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.489477{col 67}{space 3}-.8827302
{txt}{space 4}lackqual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -1.01208{col 26}{space 2} .1646627{col 37}{space 1}   -6.15{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.334813{col 67}{space 3} -.689347
{txt}{space 3}dist_qual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.925567{col 26}{space 2} .6667283{col 37}{space 1}   -7.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -6.23233{col 67}{space 3}-3.618803
{txt}{space 5}strongp {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3537421{col 26}{space 2} .0617963{col 37}{space 1}    5.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2326235{col 67}{space 3} .4748606
{txt}{space 4}outparty {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.681097{col 26}{space 2} .0697886{col 37}{space 1}   -9.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8178801{col 67}{space 3}-.5443139
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.172488{col 26}{space 2} .0807078{col 37}{space 1}   26.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.014303{col 67}{space 3} 2.330672
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3357{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3705
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3446{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     4000

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.42%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.61%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.58%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.39%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.08%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. estat ic

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 17} 4000{col 25}-1608.925{col 37}-1023.841{col 48}    6{col 57} 2059.682{col 69} 2097.446
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 22 2}
Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}
{p_end}

{com}. 
. probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1606.0533}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-826.70947}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -771.9716}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-767.30403}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -767.2702}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-767.27019}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3993
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    652.49
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-767.27019{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.5223

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        vote{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}eucdist114 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.364639{col 26}{space 2} .2103408{col 37}{space 1}   -6.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.776899{col 67}{space 3}-.9523785
{txt}{space 4}lackqual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.508451{col 26}{space 2} .2256408{col 37}{space 1}   -6.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.950699{col 67}{space 3}-1.066204
{txt}{space 3}dist_qual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -4.50837{col 26}{space 2} .6600596{col 37}{space 1}   -6.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.802063{col 67}{space 3}-3.214677
{txt}{space 5}strongp {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9665903{col 26}{space 2} .0892025{col 37}{space 1}   10.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .7917565{col 67}{space 3} 1.141424
{txt}{space 2}partyunity {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0896106{col 26}{space 2} .0332818{col 37}{space 1}    2.69{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4} .0243796{col 67}{space 3} .1548417
{txt}{space 7}devpu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0335701{col 26}{space 2} .0030395{col 37}{space 1}   11.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0276128{col 67}{space 3} .0395274
{txt}{space 4}outparty {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.167824{col 26}{space 2} .1310861{col 37}{space 1}   -8.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.424748{col 67}{space 3}-.9109005
{txt}out_partyu~y {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2353428{col 26}{space 2} .0339102{col 37}{space 1}   -6.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3018056{col 67}{space 3}-.1688801
{txt}{space 3}out_devpu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0446062{col 26}{space 2} .0049735{col 37}{space 1}   -8.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0543542{col 67}{space 3}-.0348582
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.673597{col 26}{space 2} .1553959{col 37}{space 1}   17.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.369027{col 67}{space 3} 2.978168
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3359{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3568
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3440{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3993

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.65%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.14%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.35%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.86%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.74%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. estat ic

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 17} 3993{col 25}-1606.053{col 37}-767.2702{col 48}   10{col 57}  1554.54{col 69} 1617.463
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 22 2}
Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}
{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Models in Table 1 (using Bailey for Appendix)
. probit vote eucdistb lackqual dist_qualb strongp outparty, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -1339.445}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-809.06603}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:  -774.332}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -773.7681}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-773.76803}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      2845
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}5{txt}){col 67}= {res}    436.12
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-773.76803{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.4223

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        vote{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}eucdistb {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0785608{col 26}{space 2} .0145971{col 37}{space 1}   -5.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1071705{col 67}{space 3}-.0499511
{txt}{space 4}lackqual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.107826{col 26}{space 2} .1902515{col 37}{space 1}   -5.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.480712{col 67}{space 3}-.7349396
{txt}{space 2}dist_qualb {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.765552{col 26}{space 2} .0850377{col 37}{space 1}   -9.00{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9322229{col 67}{space 3}-.5988811
{txt}{space 5}strongp {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .067278{col 26}{space 2} .0720101{col 37}{space 1}    0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.350{col 54}{space 4}-.0738593{col 67}{space 3} .2084153
{txt}{space 4}outparty {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -1.33847{col 26}{space 2} .0975021{col 37}{space 1}  -13.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.52957{col 67}{space 3}-1.147369
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  2.70333{col 26}{space 2} .1171788{col 37}{space 1}   23.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.473664{col 67}{space 3} 2.932996
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 4 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. estat clas 

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     2259{col 28}      284{txt}  {c |}  {res}     2543
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       75{col 28}      227{txt}  {c |}  {res}      302
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     2334{col 28}      511{txt}  {c |}  {res}     2845

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   96.79%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   44.42%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   88.83%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   75.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   55.58%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    3.21%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}   11.17%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   24.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   87.38%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. estat ic

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 17} 2845{col 25}-1339.445{col 37} -773.768{col 48}    6{col 57} 1559.536{col 69} 1595.256
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 22 2}
Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}
{p_end}

{com}. display (511-(75+284))/511
{res}.29745597
{txt}
{com}. 
. probit vote eucdistb lackqual dist_qualb strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1335.2182}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-676.10746}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-620.16059}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-615.83256}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-615.73044}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-615.73025}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-615.73025}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      2839
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    544.59
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-615.73025{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.5389

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        vote{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}eucdistb {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1231499{col 26}{space 2}  .017098{col 37}{space 1}   -7.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1566615{col 67}{space 3}-.0896384
{txt}{space 4}lackqual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.278758{col 26}{space 2} .2413441{col 37}{space 1}   -9.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.751784{col 67}{space 3}-1.805733
{txt}{space 2}dist_qualb {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4909079{col 26}{space 2} .0823935{col 37}{space 1}   -5.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6523963{col 67}{space 3}-.3294195
{txt}{space 5}strongp {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9031516{col 26}{space 2} .1039047{col 37}{space 1}    8.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6995021{col 67}{space 3} 1.106801
{txt}{space 2}partyunity {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0304697{col 26}{space 2} .0320766{col 37}{space 1}    0.95{col 46}{space 3}0.342{col 54}{space 4}-.0323994{col 67}{space 3} .0933387
{txt}{space 7}devpu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0257001{col 26}{space 2}  .004214{col 37}{space 1}    6.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0174408{col 67}{space 3} .0339595
{txt}{space 4}outparty {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.538355{col 26}{space 2} .1506321{col 37}{space 1}  -10.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.833588{col 67}{space 3}-1.243121
{txt}out_partyu~y {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1730824{col 26}{space 2} .0326964{col 37}{space 1}   -5.29{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2371662{col 67}{space 3}-.1089987
{txt}{space 3}out_devpu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0487906{col 26}{space 2} .0063406{col 37}{space 1}   -7.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.061218{col 67}{space 3}-.0363631
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  3.08424{col 26}{space 2} .1708319{col 37}{space 1}   18.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.749416{col 67}{space 3} 3.419065
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 1 failure and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     2253{col 28}      173{txt}  {c |}  {res}     2426
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       77{col 28}      336{txt}  {c |}  {res}      413
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     2330{col 28}      509{txt}  {c |}  {res}     2839

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   96.70%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   66.01%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   92.87%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.36%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   33.99%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    3.30%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    7.13%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.64%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   91.19%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. estat ic

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 17} 2839{col 25}-1335.218{col 37}-615.7302{col 48}   10{col 57}  1251.46{col 69} 1310.973
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 22 2}
Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}
{p_end}

{com}. display (509-(77+173))/509
{res}.50884086
{txt}
{com}. 
. probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu if nomyear > 1950 & nomyear < 2013, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1336.5994}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-683.68858}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-636.38029}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-631.09811}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-631.07886}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-631.07886}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      2846
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    495.39
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.07886{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.5278

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        vote{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}eucdist114 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.578242{col 26}{space 2} .2377776{col 37}{space 1}   -6.64{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.044278{col 67}{space 3}-1.112207
{txt}{space 4}lackqual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.328212{col 26}{space 2} .2869641{col 37}{space 1}   -4.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.890651{col 67}{space 3}-.7657724
{txt}{space 3}dist_qual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.667936{col 26}{space 2} .9441246{col 37}{space 1}   -6.00{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-7.518386{col 67}{space 3}-3.817485
{txt}{space 5}strongp {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9513117{col 26}{space 2} .1135929{col 37}{space 1}    8.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .7286737{col 67}{space 3}  1.17395
{txt}{space 2}partyunity {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1067426{col 26}{space 2} .0337594{col 37}{space 1}    3.16{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0405754{col 67}{space 3} .1729098
{txt}{space 7}devpu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0381362{col 26}{space 2} .0031824{col 37}{space 1}   11.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0318987{col 67}{space 3} .0443737
{txt}{space 4}outparty {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.052509{col 26}{space 2} .1398851{col 37}{space 1}   -7.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.326679{col 67}{space 3}-.7783394
{txt}out_partyu~y {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2466822{col 26}{space 2}  .035133{col 37}{space 1}   -7.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3155416{col 67}{space 3}-.1778228
{txt}{space 3}out_devpu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0487053{col 26}{space 2} .0054242{col 37}{space 1}   -8.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0593367{col 67}{space 3} -.038074
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  2.61611{col 26}{space 2} .1605871{col 37}{space 1}   16.29{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.301365{col 67}{space 3} 2.930855
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     2275{col 28}      170{txt}  {c |}  {res}     2445
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       62{col 28}      339{txt}  {c |}  {res}      401
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     2337{col 28}      509{txt}  {c |}  {res}     2846

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.35%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   66.60%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   93.05%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   84.54%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   33.40%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.65%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    6.95%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   15.46%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   91.85%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. estat ic

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 17} 2846{col 25}-1336.599{col 37}-631.0789{col 48}   10{col 57} 1282.158{col 69} 1341.694
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 22 2}
Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}
{p_end}

{com}. display (509-(62+170))/509
{res}.54420432
{txt}
{com}. 
. probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty if nomyear > 1950 & nomyear < 2013, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1338.9117}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-862.42008}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-850.72706}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-850.69876}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-850.69876}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      2850
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}5{txt}){col 67}= {res}    492.53
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-850.69876{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.3646

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        vote{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}eucdist114 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.281094{col 26}{space 2} .1837194{col 37}{space 1}   -6.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.641177{col 67}{space 3}-.9210106
{txt}{space 4}lackqual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.061977{col 26}{space 2}  .223661{col 37}{space 1}   -4.75{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.500344{col 67}{space 3} -.623609
{txt}{space 3}dist_qual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.550106{col 26}{space 2} .9753133{col 37}{space 1}   -5.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-7.461685{col 67}{space 3}-3.638527
{txt}{space 5}strongp {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1959181{col 26}{space 2} .0664353{col 37}{space 1}    2.95{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0657073{col 67}{space 3}  .326129
{txt}{space 4}outparty {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6220227{col 26}{space 2} .0790484{col 37}{space 1}   -7.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7769546{col 67}{space 3}-.4670907
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.130932{col 26}{space 2} .0894199{col 37}{space 1}   23.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.955672{col 67}{space 3} 2.306192
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     2273{col 28}      294{txt}  {c |}  {res}     2567
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       67{col 28}      216{txt}  {c |}  {res}      283
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     2340{col 28}      510{txt}  {c |}  {res}     2850

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.14%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   42.35%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   88.55%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   76.33%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   57.65%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.86%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}   11.45%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   23.67%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   87.33%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. estat ic

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 63}
       Model {c |}    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
{ralign 12:.}{col 14}{c |}{res}{col 17} 2850{col 25}-1338.912{col 37}-850.6988{col 48}    6{col 57} 1713.398{col 69} 1749.128
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 63}
{p 15 22 2}
Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see {helpb bic_note:[R] BIC note}
{p_end}

{com}. display (510-(294+67))/510
{res}.29215686
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Table 2 (Selected Senator's Ideological Positions, Party Loyalty Levels and Predicted Votes) 
. set more off
{txt}
{com}. probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu sameparty same_partyunity same_devpu, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1606.0533}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-826.00441}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-771.36528}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-766.69987}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-766.66593}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-766.66593}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3993
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    653.69
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-766.66593{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.5226

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        vote{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}eucdist114 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.356341{col 26}{space 2} .2103299{col 37}{space 1}   -6.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.76858{col 67}{space 3}-.9441023
{txt}{space 4}lackqual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.507076{col 26}{space 2} .2254688{col 37}{space 1}   -6.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.948987{col 67}{space 3}-1.065165
{txt}{space 3}dist_qual {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.513797{col 26}{space 2} .6596239{col 37}{space 1}   -6.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.806636{col 67}{space 3}-3.220958
{txt}{space 5}strongp {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .966272{col 26}{space 2} .0891527{col 37}{space 1}   10.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .791536{col 67}{space 3} 1.141008
{txt}{space 2}partyunity {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.146181{col 26}{space 2} .0088431{col 37}{space 1}  -16.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1635131{col 67}{space 3}-.1288488
{txt}{space 7}devpu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0111298{col 26}{space 2} .0037985{col 37}{space 1}   -2.93{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-.0185747{col 67}{space 3}-.0036849
{txt}{space 3}sameparty {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.169218{col 26}{space 2} .1310153{col 37}{space 1}    8.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .9124326{col 67}{space 3} 1.426003
{txt}same_party~y {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2357227{col 26}{space 2} .0338807{col 37}{space 1}    6.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1693177{col 67}{space 3} .3021277
{txt}{space 2}same_devpu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0446893{col 26}{space 2} .0049789{col 37}{space 1}    8.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .034931{col 67}{space 3} .0544477
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.502667{col 26}{space 2} .0975364{col 37}{space 1}   15.41{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.311499{col 67}{space 3} 1.693835
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. *Obama as Ideal Point
. replace lackqual = 1 - 0.970 if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace eucdist114 = (cs114 - (-0.366))^2 if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace dist_qual = eucdist114*lackqual if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu sameparty same_partyunity same_devpu  if counter != 44, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3359{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3568
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3440{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3993

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.65%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.14%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.35%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.86%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.74%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_45, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_45 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_45 = 1 if oos_45 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. sort counter cs114 name
{txt}
{com}. list name cs114 levelpartyu oos_45 if counter==44
{txt}
      {c TLC}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c TRC}
      {c |} {res}         name   cs114   levelp~u     oos_45 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4009. {c |} {res} WARREN         -.676        100   .9999664 {txt}{c |}
4010. {c |} {res} BALDWIN        -.556         99   .9999735 {txt}{c |}
4011. {c |} {res} HIRONO         -.514         99   .9999757 {txt}{c |}
4012. {c |} {res} SANDERS        -.511         96    .999963 {txt}{c |}
4013. {c |} {res} MARKEY         -.503        100   .9999794 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4014. {c |} {res} BOOKER         -.489         99   .9999768 {txt}{c |}
4015. {c |} {res} UDALL          -.459         97   .9999703 {txt}{c |}
4016. {c |} {res} BOXER          -.454         98   .9999744 {txt}{c |}
4017. {c |} {res} FRANKEN        -.454         99   .9999779 {txt}{c |}
4018. {c |} {res} BROWN          -.445         99   .9999781 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4019. {c |} {res} WHITEHOUSE     -.443         96   .9999664 {txt}{c |}
4020. {c |} {res} SCHATZ         -.435         97   .9999711 {txt}{c |}
4021. {c |} {res} MERKLEY        -.433         99   .9999783 {txt}{c |}
4022. {c |} {res} REED           -.395         99   .9999788 {txt}{c |}
4023. {c |} {res} BLUMENTHAL     -.388         97   .9999719 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4024. {c |} {res} LEAHY          -.378         99   .9999789 {txt}{c |}
4025. {c |} {res} MIKULSKI       -.373         98   .9999757 {txt}{c |}
4026. {c |} {res} DURBIN          -.37         98   .9999757 {txt}{c |}
4027. {c |} {res} MENENDEZ       -.366         97   .9999719 {txt}{c |}
4028. {c |} {res} SCHUMER        -.354         98   .9999756 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4029. {c |} {res} MURRAY         -.346         93   .9999506 {txt}{c |}
4030. {c |} {res} CARDIN         -.333         98   .9999755 {txt}{c |}
4031. {c |} {res} STABENOW        -.33         95   .9999624 {txt}{c |}
4032. {c |} {res} WYDEN          -.317         94   .9999565 {txt}{c |}
4033. {c |} {res} MURPHY         -.315         97   .9999714 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4034. {c |} {res} COONS          -.312         95    .999962 {txt}{c |}
4035. {c |} {res} GILLIBRAND     -.309        100   .9999814 {txt}{c |}
4036. {c |} {res} CASEY          -.301         91   .9999335 {txt}{c |}
4037. {c |} {res} SHAHEEN        -.296         92   .9999418 {txt}{c |}
4038. {c |} {res} CANTWELL       -.292         93    .999949 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4039. {c |} {res} HEINRICH       -.283         96   .9999662 {txt}{c |}
4040. {c |} {res} REID           -.278         99   .9999779 {txt}{c |}
4041. {c |} {res} FEINSTEIN      -.269         89   .9999101 {txt}{c |}
4042. {c |} {res} KLOBUCHAR      -.245         93   .9999461 {txt}{c |}
4043. {c |} {res} KAINE          -.236         87   .9998776 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4044. {c |} {res} PETERS         -.233         97   .9999686 {txt}{c |}
4045. {c |} {res} BENNET         -.219         86   .9998567 {txt}{c |}
4046. {c |} {res} TESTER         -.216         88   .9998891 {txt}{c |}
4047. {c |} {res} WARNER          -.21         83   .9997861 {txt}{c |}
4048. {c |} {res} NELSON         -.191         89   .9998981 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4049. {c |} {res} KING           -.179         84   .9997999 {txt}{c |}
4050. {c |} {res} CARPER         -.178         87   .9998637 {txt}{c |}
4051. {c |} {res} HEITKAMP        -.17         71   .9990278 {txt}{c |}
4052. {c |} {res} MCCASKILL       -.15         78   .9995518 {txt}{c |}
4053. {c |} {res} DONNELLY       -.124         72   .9990392 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4054. {c |} {res} MANCHIN         -.07         63   .9970807 {txt}{c |}
4055. {c |} {res} COLLINS           .1         63    .289387 {txt}{c |}
4056. {c |} {res} MURKOWSKI       .203         78   .1891176 {txt}{c |}
4057. {c |} {res} CAPITO          .259         87   .1398339 {txt}{c |}
4058. {c |} {res} KIRK            .275         70   .1782446 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4059. {c |} {res} COCHRAN         .286         90   .1218295 {txt}{c |}
4060. {c |} {res} ALEXANDER       .325         84    .119549 {txt}{c |}
4061. {c |} {res} GRASSLEY        .341         96   .0894467 {txt}{c |}
4062. {c |} {res} HOEVEN          .343         94   .0923975 {txt}{c |}
4063. {c |} {res} AYOTTE          .356         74   .1289667 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4064. {c |} {res} COATS           .372         94   .0824569 {txt}{c |}
4065. {c |} {res} PORTMAN         .378         84   .0984039 {txt}{c |}
4066. {c |} {res} MCCAIN          .379         90   .0869624 {txt}{c |}
4067. {c |} {res} WICKER           .38         96   .0765448 {txt}{c |}
4068. {c |} {res} CORKER          .385         88   .0883749 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4069. {c |} {res} HATCH           .386         90   .0845143 {txt}{c |}
4070. {c |} {res} BOOZMAN         .404         99   .0647131 {txt}{c |}
4071. {c |} {res} MORAN           .405         92   .0748264 {txt}{c |}
4072. {c |} {res} MCCONNELL       .409         86   .0833011 {txt}{c |}
4073. {c |} {res} ISAKSON          .41         95    .068681 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4074. {c |} {res} THUNE           .413         94   .0692346 {txt}{c |}
4075. {c |} {res} ROBERTS         .416         96   .0654246 {txt}{c |}
4076. {c |} {res} GRAHAM          .418         83   .0852271 {txt}{c |}
4077. {c |} {res} BLUNT           .437         96    .059331 {txt}{c |}
4078. {c |} {res} SHELBY           .44         95   .0597963 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4079. {c |} {res} ROUNDS          .447         91   .0631481 {txt}{c |}
4080. {c |} {res} HELLER           .45         79   .0803674 {txt}{c |}
4081. {c |} {res} CASSIDY         .461         96   .0527482 {txt}{c |}
4082. {c |} {res} BURR            .464         93   .0556027 {txt}{c |}
4083. {c |} {res} GARDNER         .468         88   .0609222 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4084. {c |} {res} FISCHER          .48         97   .0467399 {txt}{c |}
4085. {c |} {res} ERNST             .5         96   .0429651 {txt}{c |}
4086. {c |} {res} SULLIVAN        .501         94   .0447922 {txt}{c |}
4087. {c |} {res} VITTER          .506         97   .0405836 {txt}{c |}
4088. {c |} {res} CORNYN           .51         92   .0446845 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4089. {c |} {res} CRAPO           .511         97    .039459 {txt}{c |}
4090. {c |} {res} DAINES          .518         93   .0417376 {txt}{c |}
4091. {c |} {res} TILLIS          .525         94   .0391587 {txt}{c |}
4092. {c |} {res} BARASSO         .547         96   .0327377 {txt}{c |}
4093. {c |} {res} ENZI            .553         94   .0331688 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4094. {c |} {res} SESSIONS        .557         95   .0315663 {txt}{c |}
4095. {c |} {res} INHOFE          .559         98   .0289034 {txt}{c |}
4096. {c |} {res} LANKFORD        .567         96   .0289091 {txt}{c |}
4097. {c |} {res} RUBIO           .601         97   .0225045 {txt}{c |}
4098. {c |} {res} JOHNSON         .627         91   .0220146 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4099. {c |} {res} TOOMEY          .641         93    .018862 {txt}{c |}
4100. {c |} {res} COTTON          .649         98   .0154787 {txt}{c |}
4101. {c |} {res} PERDUE           .66         96   .0150469 {txt}{c |}
4102. {c |} {res} RISCH           .672         99   .0125718 {txt}{c |}
4103. {c |} {res} SCOTT            .69         96   .0118479 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4104. {c |} {res} SASSE           .835         97   .0028781 {txt}{c |}
4105. {c |} {res} FLAKE           .875         89   .0024159 {txt}{c |}
4106. {c |} {res} PAUL            .936         84   .0013777 {txt}{c |}
4107. {c |} {res} LEE             .943         89   .0010465 {txt}{c |}
4108. {c |} {res} CRUZ            .955         90   .0008595 {txt}{c |}
      {c BLC}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c BRC}

{com}. 
. *Kennedy's Ideology as Ideal Point
. replace lackqual = 1 - 0.970 if counter==44
{txt}(0 real changes made)

{com}. replace eucdist114 = (cs114 - (.1061864))^2 if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace dist_qual = eucdist114*lackqual if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu sameparty same_partyunity same_devpu  if counter != 44, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3359{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3568
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3440{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3993

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.65%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.14%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.35%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.86%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.74%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_46, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_46 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_46 = 1 if oos_46 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. sort counter cs114 name
{txt}
{com}. list name cs114 levelpartyu oos_45 oos_46 if counter==44
{txt}
      {c TLC}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c TRC}
      {c |} {res}         name   cs114   levelp~u     oos_45     oos_46 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4009. {c |} {res} WARREN         -.676        100   .9999664    .999351 {txt}{c |}
4010. {c |} {res} BALDWIN        -.556         99   .9999735   .9997107 {txt}{c |}
4011. {c |} {res} HIRONO         -.514         99   .9999757   .9997857 {txt}{c |}
4012. {c |} {res} SANDERS        -.511         96    .999963   .9996945 {txt}{c |}
4013. {c |} {res} MARKEY         -.503        100   .9999794   .9998252 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4014. {c |} {res} BOOKER         -.489         99   .9999768   .9998195 {txt}{c |}
4015. {c |} {res} UDALL          -.459         97   .9999703   .9998088 {txt}{c |}
4016. {c |} {res} BOXER          -.454         98   .9999744   .9998371 {txt}{c |}
4017. {c |} {res} FRANKEN        -.454         99   .9999779   .9998569 {txt}{c |}
4018. {c |} {res} BROWN          -.445         99   .9999781   .9998649 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4019. {c |} {res} WHITEHOUSE     -.443         96   .9999664   .9998037 {txt}{c |}
4020. {c |} {res} SCHATZ         -.435         97   .9999711   .9998356 {txt}{c |}
4021. {c |} {res} MERKLEY        -.433         99   .9999783   .9998748 {txt}{c |}
4022. {c |} {res} REED           -.395         99   .9999788   .9999007 {txt}{c |}
4023. {c |} {res} BLUMENTHAL     -.388         97   .9999719   .9998759 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4024. {c |} {res} LEAHY          -.378         99   .9999789   .9999101 {txt}{c |}
4025. {c |} {res} MIKULSKI       -.373         98   .9999757   .9999002 {txt}{c |}
4026. {c |} {res} DURBIN          -.37         98   .9999757   .9999018 {txt}{c |}
4027. {c |} {res} MENENDEZ       -.366         97   .9999719   .9998904 {txt}{c |}
4028. {c |} {res} SCHUMER        -.354         98   .9999756   .9999102 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4029. {c |} {res} MURRAY         -.346         93   .9999506   .9998341 {txt}{c |}
4030. {c |} {res} CARDIN         -.333         98   .9999755   .9999198 {txt}{c |}
4031. {c |} {res} STABENOW        -.33         95   .9999624   .9998822 {txt}{c |}
4032. {c |} {res} WYDEN          -.317         94   .9999565   .9998742 {txt}{c |}
4033. {c |} {res} MURPHY         -.315         97   .9999714   .9999163 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4034. {c |} {res} COONS          -.312         95    .999962   .9998924 {txt}{c |}
4035. {c |} {res} GILLIBRAND     -.309        100   .9999814    .999946 {txt}{c |}
4036. {c |} {res} CASEY          -.301         91   .9999335    .999828 {txt}{c |}
4037. {c |} {res} SHAHEEN        -.296         92   .9999418   .9998523 {txt}{c |}
4038. {c |} {res} CANTWELL       -.292         93    .999949   .9998727 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4039. {c |} {res} HEINRICH       -.283         96   .9999662    .999918 {txt}{c |}
4040. {c |} {res} REID           -.278         99   .9999779   .9999468 {txt}{c |}
4041. {c |} {res} FEINSTEIN      -.269         89   .9999101   .9998074 {txt}{c |}
4042. {c |} {res} KLOBUCHAR      -.245         93   .9999461   .9998965 {txt}{c |}
4043. {c |} {res} KAINE          -.236         87   .9998776   .9997827 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4044. {c |} {res} PETERS         -.233         97   .9999686   .9999425 {txt}{c |}
4045. {c |} {res} BENNET         -.219         86   .9998567   .9997687 {txt}{c |}
4046. {c |} {res} TESTER         -.216         88   .9998891   .9998226 {txt}{c |}
4047. {c |} {res} WARNER          -.21         83   .9997861   .9996746 {txt}{c |}
4048. {c |} {res} NELSON         -.191         89   .9998981   .9998573 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4049. {c |} {res} KING           -.179         84   .9997999   .9997406 {txt}{c |}
4050. {c |} {res} CARPER         -.178         87   .9998637   .9998231 {txt}{c |}
4051. {c |} {res} HEITKAMP        -.17         71   .9990278   .9988253 {txt}{c |}
4052. {c |} {res} MCCASKILL       -.15         78   .9995518   .9995042 {txt}{c |}
4053. {c |} {res} DONNELLY       -.124         72   .9990392   .9990659 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4054. {c |} {res} MANCHIN         -.07         63   .9970807   .9977521 {txt}{c |}
4055. {c |} {res} COLLINS           .1         63    .289387   .4085447 {txt}{c |}
4056. {c |} {res} MURKOWSKI       .203         78   .1891176   .3401102 {txt}{c |}
4057. {c |} {res} CAPITO          .259         87   .1398339    .296953 {txt}{c |}
4058. {c |} {res} KIRK            .275         70   .1782446   .3625489 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4059. {c |} {res} COCHRAN         .286         90   .1218295    .280967 {txt}{c |}
4060. {c |} {res} ALEXANDER       .325         84    .119549   .2958467 {txt}{c |}
4061. {c |} {res} GRASSLEY        .341         96   .0894467   .2480088 {txt}{c |}
4062. {c |} {res} HOEVEN          .343         94   .0923975   .2546537 {txt}{c |}
4063. {c |} {res} AYOTTE          .356         74   .1289667   .3275253 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4064. {c |} {res} COATS           .372         94   .0824569   .2477268 {txt}{c |}
4065. {c |} {res} PORTMAN         .378         84   .0984039   .2825867 {txt}{c |}
4066. {c |} {res} MCCAIN          .379         90   .0869624   .2601881 {txt}{c |}
4067. {c |} {res} WICKER           .38         96   .0765448   .2387404 {txt}{c |}
4068. {c |} {res} CORKER          .385         88   .0883749   .2658401 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4069. {c |} {res} HATCH           .386         90   .0845143   .2583191 {txt}{c |}
4070. {c |} {res} BOOZMAN         .404         99   .0647131   .2223695 {txt}{c |}
4071. {c |} {res} MORAN           .405         92   .0748264   .2459795 {txt}{c |}
4072. {c |} {res} MCCONNELL       .409         86   .0833011   .2663114 {txt}{c |}
4073. {c |} {res} ISAKSON          .41         95    .068681   .2342013 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4074. {c |} {res} THUNE           .413         94   .0692346   .2367847 {txt}{c |}
4075. {c |} {res} ROBERTS         .416         96   .0654246   .2291337 {txt}{c |}
4076. {c |} {res} GRAHAM          .418         83   .0852271   .2746299 {txt}{c |}
4077. {c |} {res} BLUNT           .437         96    .059331   .2230982 {txt}{c |}
4078. {c |} {res} SHELBY           .44         95   .0597963   .2255399 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4079. {c |} {res} ROUNDS          .447         91   .0631481    .236952 {txt}{c |}
4080. {c |} {res} HELLER           .45         79   .0803674   .2790563 {txt}{c |}
4081. {c |} {res} CASSIDY         .461         96   .0527482   .2158405 {txt}{c |}
4082. {c |} {res} BURR            .464         93   .0556027   .2247892 {txt}{c |}
4083. {c |} {res} GARDNER         .468         88   .0609222   .2404788 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4084. {c |} {res} FISCHER          .48         97   .0467399     .20665 {txt}{c |}
4085. {c |} {res} ERNST             .5         96   .0429651   .2033054 {txt}{c |}
4086. {c |} {res} SULLIVAN        .501         94   .0447922   .2093182 {txt}{c |}
4087. {c |} {res} VITTER          .506         97   .0405836   .1981896 {txt}{c |}
4088. {c |} {res} CORNYN           .51         92   .0446845   .2126524 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4089. {c |} {res} CRAPO           .511         97    .039459   .1965228 {txt}{c |}
4090. {c |} {res} DAINES          .518         93   .0417376   .2066457 {txt}{c |}
4091. {c |} {res} TILLIS          .525         94   .0391587   .2010382 {txt}{c |}
4092. {c |} {res} BARASSO         .547         96   .0327377   .1871654 {txt}{c |}
4093. {c |} {res} ENZI            .553         94   .0331688   .1910386 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4094. {c |} {res} SESSIONS        .557         95   .0315663   .1865823 {txt}{c |}
4095. {c |} {res} INHOFE          .559         98   .0289034    .177055 {txt}{c |}
4096. {c |} {res} LANKFORD        .567         96   .0289091   .1800196 {txt}{c |}
4097. {c |} {res} RUBIO           .601         97   .0225045   .1648076 {txt}{c |}
4098. {c |} {res} JOHNSON         .627         91   .0220146   .1716915 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4099. {c |} {res} TOOMEY          .641         93    .018862   .1606456 {txt}{c |}
4100. {c |} {res} COTTON          .649         98   .0154787      .1445 {txt}{c |}
4101. {c |} {res} PERDUE           .66         96   .0150469    .145472 {txt}{c |}
4102. {c |} {res} RISCH           .672         99   .0125718   .1336105 {txt}{c |}
4103. {c |} {res} SCOTT            .69         96   .0118479   .1341546 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4104. {c |} {res} SASSE           .835         97   .0028781   .0804544 {txt}{c |}
4105. {c |} {res} FLAKE           .875         89   .0024159   .0804058 {txt}{c |}
4106. {c |} {res} PAUL            .936         84   .0013777   .0678276 {txt}{c |}
4107. {c |} {res} LEE             .943         89   .0010465   .0587656 {txt}{c |}
4108. {c |} {res} CRUZ            .955         90   .0008595   .0540793 {txt}{c |}
      {c BLC}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c BRC}

{com}. 
. *Kirk as median
. replace lackqual = 1 - 0.970 if counter==44
{txt}(0 real changes made)

{com}. replace eucdist114 = (cs114 - (.275))^2 if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace dist_qual = eucdist114*lackqual if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu sameparty same_partyunity same_devpu  if counter != 44, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3359{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3568
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3440{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3993

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.65%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.14%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.35%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.86%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.74%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_47, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_47 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_47 = 1 if oos_46 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. sort counter cs114 name
{txt}
{com}. list name cs114 levelpartyu oos_45 oos_46 oos_47 if counter==44
{txt}
      {c TLC}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c TRC}
      {c |} {res}         name   cs114   levelp~u     oos_45     oos_46     oos_47 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4009. {c |} {res} WARREN         -.676        100   .9999664    .999351   .9972818 {txt}{c |}
4010. {c |} {res} BALDWIN        -.556         99   .9999735   .9997107   .9989131 {txt}{c |}
4011. {c |} {res} HIRONO         -.514         99   .9999757   .9997857   .9992297 {txt}{c |}
4012. {c |} {res} SANDERS        -.511         96    .999963   .9996945   .9989414 {txt}{c |}
4013. {c |} {res} MARKEY         -.503        100   .9999794   .9998252   .9993727 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4014. {c |} {res} BOOKER         -.489         99   .9999768   .9998195   .9993697 {txt}{c |}
4015. {c |} {res} UDALL          -.459         97   .9999703   .9998088   .9993696 {txt}{c |}
4016. {c |} {res} BOXER          -.454         98   .9999744   .9998371   .9994608 {txt}{c |}
4017. {c |} {res} FRANKEN        -.454         99   .9999779   .9998569   .9995213 {txt}{c |}
4018. {c |} {res} BROWN          -.445         99   .9999781   .9998649   .9995535 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4019. {c |} {res} WHITEHOUSE     -.443         96   .9999664   .9998037    .999372 {txt}{c |}
4020. {c |} {res} SCHATZ         -.435         97   .9999711   .9998356   .9994744 {txt}{c |}
4021. {c |} {res} MERKLEY        -.433         99   .9999783   .9998748   .9995927 {txt}{c |}
4022. {c |} {res} REED           -.395         99   .9999788   .9999007   .9996936 {txt}{c |}
4023. {c |} {res} BLUMENTHAL     -.388         97   .9999719   .9998759   .9996278 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4024. {c |} {res} LEAHY          -.378         99   .9999789   .9999101   .9997294 {txt}{c |}
4025. {c |} {res} MIKULSKI       -.373         98   .9999757   .9999002   .9997044 {txt}{c |}
4026. {c |} {res} DURBIN          -.37         98   .9999757   .9999018   .9997106 {txt}{c |}
4027. {c |} {res} MENENDEZ       -.366         97   .9999719   .9998904   .9996817 {txt}{c |}
4028. {c |} {res} SCHUMER        -.354         98   .9999756   .9999102   .9997415 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4029. {c |} {res} MURRAY         -.346         93   .9999506   .9998341   .9995481 {txt}{c |}
4030. {c |} {res} CARDIN         -.333         98   .9999755   .9999198   .9997764 {txt}{c |}
4031. {c |} {res} STABENOW        -.33         95   .9999624   .9998822   .9996814 {txt}{c |}
4032. {c |} {res} WYDEN          -.317         94   .9999565   .9998742   .9996691 {txt}{c |}
4033. {c |} {res} MURPHY         -.315         97   .9999714   .9999163   .9997752 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4034. {c |} {res} COONS          -.312         95    .999962   .9998924   .9997169 {txt}{c |}
4035. {c |} {res} GILLIBRAND     -.309        100   .9999814    .999946   .9998529 {txt}{c |}
4036. {c |} {res} CASEY          -.301         91   .9999335    .999828   .9995691 {txt}{c |}
4037. {c |} {res} SHAHEEN        -.296         92   .9999418   .9998523   .9996299 {txt}{c |}
4038. {c |} {res} CANTWELL       -.292         93    .999949   .9998727   .9996806 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4039. {c |} {res} HEINRICH       -.283         96   .9999662    .999918   .9997925 {txt}{c |}
4040. {c |} {res} REID           -.278         99   .9999779   .9999468   .9998633 {txt}{c |}
4041. {c |} {res} FEINSTEIN      -.269         89   .9999101   .9998074   .9995475 {txt}{c |}
4042. {c |} {res} KLOBUCHAR      -.245         93   .9999461   .9998965   .9997593 {txt}{c |}
4043. {c |} {res} KAINE          -.236         87   .9998776   .9997827   .9995223 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4044. {c |} {res} PETERS         -.233         97   .9999686   .9999425   .9998655 {txt}{c |}
4045. {c |} {res} BENNET         -.219         86   .9998567   .9997687   .9995083 {txt}{c |}
4046. {c |} {res} TESTER         -.216         88   .9998891   .9998226   .9996197 {txt}{c |}
4047. {c |} {res} WARNER          -.21         83   .9997861   .9996746    .999331 {txt}{c |}
4048. {c |} {res} NELSON         -.191         89   .9998981   .9998573   .9997048 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4049. {c |} {res} KING           -.179         84   .9997999   .9997406   .9994895 {txt}{c |}
4050. {c |} {res} CARPER         -.178         87   .9998637   .9998231   .9996463 {txt}{c |}
4051. {c |} {res} HEITKAMP        -.17         71   .9990278   .9988253    .997885 {txt}{c |}
4052. {c |} {res} MCCASKILL       -.15         78   .9995518   .9995042   .9990999 {txt}{c |}
4053. {c |} {res} DONNELLY       -.124         72   .9990392   .9990659   .9984212 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4054. {c |} {res} MANCHIN         -.07         63   .9970807   .9977521   .9966344 {txt}{c |}
4055. {c |} {res} COLLINS           .1         63    .289387   .4085447   .3909216 {txt}{c |}
4056. {c |} {res} MURKOWSKI       .203         78   .1891176   .3401102    .342403 {txt}{c |}
4057. {c |} {res} CAPITO          .259         87   .1398339    .296953   .3089845 {txt}{c |}
4058. {c |} {res} KIRK            .275         70   .1782446   .3625489   .3786069 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4059. {c |} {res} COCHRAN         .286         90   .1218295    .280967   .2973911 {txt}{c |}
4060. {c |} {res} ALEXANDER       .325         84    .119549   .2958467    .319646 {txt}{c |}
4061. {c |} {res} GRASSLEY        .341         96   .0894467   .2480088   .2725843 {txt}{c |}
4062. {c |} {res} HOEVEN          .343         94   .0923975   .2546537   .2798943 {txt}{c |}
4063. {c |} {res} AYOTTE          .356         74   .1289667   .3275253   .3581349 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4064. {c |} {res} COATS           .372         94   .0824569   .2477268   .2774969 {txt}{c |}
4065. {c |} {res} PORTMAN         .378         84   .0984039   .2825867   .3153345 {txt}{c |}
4066. {c |} {res} MCCAIN          .379         90   .0869624   .2601881   .2918895 {txt}{c |}
4067. {c |} {res} WICKER           .38         96   .0765448   .2387404   .2692892 {txt}{c |}
4068. {c |} {res} CORKER          .385         88   .0883749   .2658401   .2989132 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4069. {c |} {res} HATCH           .386         90   .0845143   .2583191   .2911191 {txt}{c |}
4070. {c |} {res} BOOZMAN         .404         99   .0647131   .2223695   .2556769 {txt}{c |}
4071. {c |} {res} MORAN           .405         92   .0748264   .2459795   .2812242 {txt}{c |}
4072. {c |} {res} MCCONNELL       .409         86   .0833011   .2663114   .3036242 {txt}{c |}
4073. {c |} {res} ISAKSON          .41         95    .068681   .2342013   .2694178 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4074. {c |} {res} THUNE           .413         94   .0692346   .2367847   .2727002 {txt}{c |}
4075. {c |} {res} ROBERTS         .416         96   .0654246   .2291337   .2649446 {txt}{c |}
4076. {c |} {res} GRAHAM          .418         83   .0852271   .2746299   .3140742 {txt}{c |}
4077. {c |} {res} BLUNT           .437         96    .059331   .2230982   .2618452 {txt}{c |}
4078. {c |} {res} SHELBY           .44         95   .0597963   .2255399   .2650017 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4079. {c |} {res} ROUNDS          .447         91   .0631481    .236952   .2786017 {txt}{c |}
4080. {c |} {res} HELLER           .45         79   .0803674   .2790563   .3245563 {txt}{c |}
4081. {c |} {res} CASSIDY         .461         96   .0527482   .2158405   .2578053 {txt}{c |}
4082. {c |} {res} BURR            .464         93   .0556027   .2247892   .2681509 {txt}{c |}
4083. {c |} {res} GARDNER         .468         88   .0609222   .2404788   .2860215 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4084. {c |} {res} FISCHER          .48         97   .0467399     .20665   .2506842 {txt}{c |}
4085. {c |} {res} ERNST             .5         96   .0429651   .2033054   .2501437 {txt}{c |}
4086. {c |} {res} SULLIVAN        .501         94   .0447922   .2093182   .2570553 {txt}{c |}
4087. {c |} {res} VITTER          .506         97   .0405836   .1981896   .2453333 {txt}{c |}
4088. {c |} {res} CORNYN           .51         92   .0446845   .2126524   .2622643 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4089. {c |} {res} CRAPO           .511         97    .039459   .1965228   .2442389 {txt}{c |}
4090. {c |} {res} DAINES          .518         93   .0417376   .2066457    .256809 {txt}{c |}
4091. {c |} {res} TILLIS          .525         94   .0391587   .2010382   .2515907 {txt}{c |}
4092. {c |} {res} BARASSO         .547         96   .0327377   .1871654   .2391984 {txt}{c |}
4093. {c |} {res} ENZI            .553         94   .0331688   .1910386   .2446111 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4094. {c |} {res} SESSIONS        .557         95   .0315663   .1865823   .2400885 {txt}{c |}
4095. {c |} {res} INHOFE          .559         98   .0289034    .177055   .2293176 {txt}{c |}
4096. {c |} {res} LANKFORD        .567         96   .0289091   .1800196   .2340081 {txt}{c |}
4097. {c |} {res} RUBIO           .601         97   .0225045   .1648076   .2211886 {txt}{c |}
4098. {c |} {res} JOHNSON         .627         91   .0220146   .1716915   .2333978 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4099. {c |} {res} TOOMEY          .641         93    .018862   .1606456   .2221484 {txt}{c |}
4100. {c |} {res} COTTON          .649         98   .0154787      .1445   .2034283 {txt}{c |}
4101. {c |} {res} PERDUE           .66         96   .0150469    .145472   .2062127 {txt}{c |}
4102. {c |} {res} RISCH           .672         99   .0125718   .1336105   .1929653 {txt}{c |}
4103. {c |} {res} SCOTT            .69         96   .0118479   .1341546   .1961552 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4104. {c |} {res} SASSE           .835         97   .0028781   .0804544    .140637 {txt}{c |}
4105. {c |} {res} FLAKE           .875         89   .0024159   .0804058   .1451097 {txt}{c |}
4106. {c |} {res} PAUL            .936         84   .0013777   .0678276    .132053 {txt}{c |}
4107. {c |} {res} LEE             .943         89   .0010465   .0587656   .1177587 {txt}{c |}
4108. {c |} {res} CRUZ            .955         90   .0008595   .0540793   .1109435 {txt}{c |}
      {c BLC}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c BRC}

{com}. 
. **Figure Two (Republican Senators' Predicted Probabilities of Voting for Hypothetical Nominees)
. ***Making Adjustments to Ideology and Qualifications
. ***Sotomayor's Values
. replace lackqual = 1 - 0.710 if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace nomid = 0.780 if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace nomineeid = .4345696 - .8996801*nomid if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace eucdist114 = (cs114 - nomineeid)^2 if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace dist_qual = eucdist114*lackqual if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu   if counter != 44, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3359{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3568
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3440{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3993

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.65%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.14%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.35%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.86%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.74%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_Sotomayor, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly predict oos_Sotomayor_xb, xb
{txt}
{com}. quietly predict oos_Sotomayor_se, stdp
{txt}
{com}. quietly generate lb_Sotomayor = oos_Sotomayor_xb - invnormal(0.975)*oos_Sotomayor_se
{txt}
{com}. quietly generate ub_Sotomayor = oos_Sotomayor_xb + invnormal(0.975)*oos_Sotomayor_se
{txt}
{com}. quietly generate plb_Sotomayor = normal(lb_Sotomayor)
{txt}
{com}. quietly generate pub_Sotomayor = normal(ub_Sotomayor)
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_Sotomayor = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_Sotomayor = 1 if oos_Sotomayor >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab pred_oos_Sotomayor if counter==44

{txt}pred_oos_So {c |}
    tomayor {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}         54       54.00       54.00
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}         46       46.00      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        100      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***Ginsburg's Values
. replace lackqual = 1 - 1.000 if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace nomid = 0.680 if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace nomineeid = .4345696 - .8996801*nomid if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace eucdist114 = (cs114 - nomineeid)^2 if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. replace dist_qual = eucdist114*lackqual if counter==44
{txt}(100 real changes made)

{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu   if counter != 44, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3359{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3568
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3440{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3993

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.65%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.14%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.35%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.86%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.74%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_Ginsburg, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly predict oos_Ginsburg_xb, xb
{txt}
{com}. quietly predict oos_Ginsburg_se, stdp
{txt}
{com}. quietly generate lb_Ginsburg = oos_Ginsburg_xb - invnormal(0.975)*oos_Ginsburg_se
{txt}
{com}. quietly generate ub_Ginsburg = oos_Ginsburg_xb + invnormal(0.975)*oos_Ginsburg_se
{txt}
{com}. quietly generate plb_Ginsburg = normal(lb_Ginsburg)
{txt}
{com}. quietly generate pub_Ginsburg = normal(ub_Ginsburg)
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_Ginsburg = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_Ginsburg = 1 if oos_Ginsburg >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab pred_oos_Ginsburg if counter==44

{txt}pred_oos_Gi {c |}
     nsburg {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}         54       54.00       54.00
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}         46       46.00      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        100      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. save "C:\Users\mmak\Desktop\Forecasting 2016 RP v2.dta"
{txt}file C:\Users\mmak\Desktop\Forecasting 2016 RP v2.dta saved

{com}. 
. sort counter cs114 name
{txt}
{com}. list name cs114 levelpartyu oos_Sotomayor plb_Sotomayor pub_Sotomayor if counter==44
{txt}
      {c TLC}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c TRC}
      {c |} {res}         name   cs114   levelp~u   oos_So~r   plb_So~r   pub_So~r {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4009. {c |} {res} WARREN         -.676        100   .9995044   .9863263    .999994 {txt}{c |}
4010. {c |} {res} BALDWIN        -.556         99   .9997522   .9915267   .9999977 {txt}{c |}
4011. {c |} {res} HIRONO         -.514         99   .9998024   .9927683   .9999983 {txt}{c |}
4012. {c |} {res} SANDERS        -.511         96    .999716   .9905523   .9999973 {txt}{c |}
4013. {c |} {res} MARKEY         -.503        100   .9998353   .9936664   .9999986 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4014. {c |} {res} BOOKER         -.489         99   .9998246   .9933485   .9999985 {txt}{c |}
4015. {c |} {res} UDALL          -.459         97   .9998004   .9926473   .9999983 {txt}{c |}
4016. {c |} {res} BOXER          -.454         98   .9998277   .9933996   .9999986 {txt}{c |}
4017. {c |} {res} FRANKEN        -.454         99   .9998485   .9940004   .9999988 {txt}{c |}
4018. {c |} {res} BROWN          -.445         99   .9998536   .9941418   .9999988 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4019. {c |} {res} WHITEHOUSE     -.443         96   .9997864   .9922543   .9999982 {txt}{c |}
4020. {c |} {res} SCHATZ         -.435         97   .9998171    .993085   .9999985 {txt}{c |}
4021. {c |} {res} MERKLEY        -.433         99   .9998597    .994315   .9999989 {txt}{c |}
4022. {c |} {res} REED           -.395         99   .9998751   .9947612    .999999 {txt}{c |}
4023. {c |} {res} BLUMENTHAL     -.388         97   .9998409   .9937261   .9999987 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4024. {c |} {res} LEAHY          -.378         99   .9998803   .9949155   .9999991 {txt}{c |}
4025. {c |} {res} MIKULSKI       -.373         98   .9998651   .9944405    .999999 {txt}{c |}
4026. {c |} {res} DURBIN          -.37         98   .9998659   .9944659    .999999 {txt}{c |}
4027. {c |} {res} MENENDEZ       -.366         97   .9998485   .9939413   .9999988 {txt}{c |}
4028. {c |} {res} SCHUMER        -.354         98   .9998701   .9945874    .999999 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4029. {c |} {res} MURRAY         -.346         93   .9997567   .9913884   .9999979 {txt}{c |}
4030. {c |} {res} CARDIN         -.333         98   .9998744   .9947132    .999999 {txt}{c |}
4031. {c |} {res} STABENOW        -.33         95   .9998155   .9929696   .9999985 {txt}{c |}
4032. {c |} {res} WYDEN          -.317         94   .9997935   .9923556   .9999982 {txt}{c |}
4033. {c |} {res} MURPHY         -.315         97   .9998598   .9942614   .9999989 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4034. {c |} {res} COONS          -.312         95    .999819   .9930659   .9999985 {txt}{c |}
4035. {c |} {res} GILLIBRAND     -.309        100   .9999061   .9957404   .9999993 {txt}{c |}
4036. {c |} {res} CASEY          -.301         91   .9997031   .9900104   .9999972 {txt}{c |}
4037. {c |} {res} SHAHEEN        -.296         92   .9997386   .9909024   .9999976 {txt}{c |}
4038. {c |} {res} CANTWELL       -.292         93     .99977   .9917174    .999998 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4039. {c |} {res} HEINRICH       -.283         96   .9998437   .9937747   .9999987 {txt}{c |}
4040. {c |} {res} REID           -.278         99   .9998946   .9953539   .9999992 {txt}{c |}
4041. {c |} {res} FEINSTEIN      -.269         89   .9996246   .9881328   .9999962 {txt}{c |}
4042. {c |} {res} KLOBUCHAR      -.245         93   .9997702   .9917246    .999998 {txt}{c |}
4043. {c |} {res} KAINE          -.236         87   .9995176   .9857575   .9999949 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4044. {c |} {res} PETERS         -.233         97   .9998614   .9943079   .9999989 {txt}{c |}
4045. {c |} {res} BENNET         -.219         86   .9994497   .9843348   .9999939 {txt}{c |}
4046. {c |} {res} TESTER         -.216         88   .9995654   .9868087   .9999955 {txt}{c |}
4047. {c |} {res} WARNER          -.21         83   .9992117   .9796963   .9999903 {txt}{c |}
4048. {c |} {res} NELSON         -.191         89    .999603    .987666   .9999959 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4049. {c |} {res} KING           -.179         84    .999268   .9807883   .9999912 {txt}{c |}
4050. {c |} {res} CARPER         -.178         87   .9994845   .9850975   .9999943 {txt}{c |}
4051. {c |} {res} HEITKAMP        -.17         71    .996936   .9470867   .9999443 {txt}{c |}
4052. {c |} {res} MCCASKILL       -.15         78   .9984836    .967739   .9999775 {txt}{c |}
4053. {c |} {res} DONNELLY       -.124         72   .9969733   .9477655   .9999447 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4054. {c |} {res} MANCHIN         -.07         63   .9916589   .8966658   .9997879 {txt}{c |}
4055. {c |} {res} COLLINS           .1         63   .1642453      .0994   .2516395 {txt}{c |}
4056. {c |} {res} MURKOWSKI       .203         78   .0848512   .0505134   .1342711 {txt}{c |}
4057. {c |} {res} CAPITO          .259         87    .052447    .029871   .0868421 {txt}{c |}
4058. {c |} {res} KIRK            .275         70   .0694848   .0381254   .1177299 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4059. {c |} {res} COCHRAN         .286         90   .0415872   .0229689   .0708961 {txt}{c |}
4060. {c |} {res} ALEXANDER       .325         84    .037074   .0199695    .064631 {txt}{c |}
4061. {c |} {res} GRASSLEY        .341         96   .0244507     .01244   .0449771 {txt}{c |}
4062. {c |} {res} HOEVEN          .343         94   .0253571   .0130275   .0462466 {txt}{c |}
4063. {c |} {res} AYOTTE          .356         74   .0378655   .0192909   .0689836 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4064. {c |} {res} COATS           .372         94   .0201479    .010016   .0378947 {txt}{c |}
4065. {c |} {res} PORTMAN         .378         84   .0249434   .0126215   .0460713 {txt}{c |}
4066. {c |} {res} MCCAIN          .379         90   .0211478   .0105951    .039491 {txt}{c |}
4067. {c |} {res} WICKER           .38         96   .0178524   .0086879   .0342359 {txt}{c |}
4068. {c |} {res} CORKER          .385         88   .0212116   .0105966   .0397012 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4069. {c |} {res} HATCH           .386         90   .0199441   .0099022   .0375562 {txt}{c |}
4070. {c |} {res} BOOZMAN         .404         99   .0132799   .0061339   .0267101 {txt}{c |}
4071. {c |} {res} MORAN           .405         92   .0160059   .0076919   .0310688 {txt}{c |}
4072. {c |} {res} MCCONNELL       .409         86   .0181987   .0088143   .0350249 {txt}{c |}
4073. {c |} {res} ISAKSON          .41         95   .0140674   .0066185   .0278437 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4074. {c |} {res} THUNE           .413         94    .014073   .0066276   .0278321 {txt}{c |}
4075. {c |} {res} ROBERTS         .416         96    .012932   .0059976   .0259353 {txt}{c |}
4076. {c |} {res} GRAHAM          .418         83   .0182152    .008699   .0354595 {txt}{c |}
4077. {c |} {res} BLUNT           .437         96   .0105526   .0047416    .021792 {txt}{c |}
4078. {c |} {res} SHELBY           .44         95   .0105449   .0047423   .0217607 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4079. {c |} {res} ROUNDS          .447         91   .0110451   .0049933   .0226782 {txt}{c |}
4080. {c |} {res} HELLER           .45         79   .0150848   .0067726   .0309782 {txt}{c |}
4081. {c |} {res} CASSIDY         .461         96   .0082435   .0035599   .0176579 {txt}{c |}
4082. {c |} {res} BURR            .464         93   .0087379   .0038089   .0185558 {txt}{c |}
4083. {c |} {res} GARDNER         .468         88   .0097187   .0042606   .0205073 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4084. {c |} {res} FISCHER          .48         97   .0064978   .0026955   .0144411 {txt}{c |}
4085. {c |} {res} ERNST             .5         96   .0053279   .0021382   .0122069 {txt}{c |}
4086. {c |} {res} SULLIVAN        .501         94   .0056093   .0022685     .01276 {txt}{c |}
4087. {c |} {res} VITTER          .506         97   .0048055   .0018941   .0111929 {txt}{c |}
4088. {c |} {res} CORNYN           .51         92   .0053721   .0021476    .012346 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4089. {c |} {res} CRAPO           .511         97   .0045239   .0017646   .0106381 {txt}{c |}
4090. {c |} {res} DAINES          .518         93   .0047249   .0018502   .0110675 {txt}{c |}
4091. {c |} {res} TILLIS          .525         94    .004196   .0016115   .0100058 {txt}{c |}
4092. {c |} {res} BARASSO         .547         96   .0029582   .0010693   .0074566 {txt}{c |}
4093. {c |} {res} ENZI            .553         94   .0029211   .0010496   .0074008 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4094. {c |} {res} SESSIONS        .557         95   .0026753   .0009478   .0068674 {txt}{c |}
4095. {c |} {res} INHOFE          .559         98   .0023489    .000815   .0061463 {txt}{c |}
4096. {c |} {res} LANKFORD        .567         96   .0022523    .000774   .0059443 {txt}{c |}
4097. {c |} {res} RUBIO           .601         97   .0013228   .0004115    .003822 {txt}{c |}
4098. {c |} {res} JOHNSON         .627         91   .0010979   .0003211   .0033471 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4099. {c |} {res} TOOMEY          .641         93   .0008111   .0002255   .0025911 {txt}{c |}
4100. {c |} {res} COTTON          .649         98   .0005851   .0001552   .0019527 {txt}{c |}
4101. {c |} {res} PERDUE           .66         96   .0005224   .0001345   .0017901 {txt}{c |}
4102. {c |} {res} RISCH           .672         99   .0003743   .0000909   .0013533 {txt}{c |}
4103. {c |} {res} SCOTT            .69         96   .0003026   .0000695   .0011495 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4104. {c |} {res} SASSE           .835         97   .0000113   1.25e-06   .0000824 {txt}{c |}
4105. {c |} {res} FLAKE           .875         89   5.67e-06   4.86e-07   .0000518 {txt}{c |}
4106. {c |} {res} PAUL            .936         84   1.20e-06   6.39e-08   .0000165 {txt}{c |}
4107. {c |} {res} LEE             .943         89   7.28e-07   3.73e-08   .0000105 {txt}{c |}
4108. {c |} {res} CRUZ            .955         90   4.64e-07   2.16e-08   7.28e-06 {txt}{c |}
      {c BLC}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c BRC}

{com}. 
. sort counter cs114 name
{txt}
{com}. list name cs114 levelpartyu oos_Ginsburg plb_Ginsburg pub_Ginsburg if counter==44
{txt}
      {c TLC}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c TRC}
      {c |} {res}         name   cs114   levelp~u   oos_Gi~g   plb_Gi~g   pub_Gi~g {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4009. {c |} {res} WARREN         -.676        100   .9999379   .9970868   .9999996 {txt}{c |}
4010. {c |} {res} BALDWIN        -.556         99   .9999605   .9978749   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4011. {c |} {res} HIRONO         -.514         99   .9999668   .9981179   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4012. {c |} {res} SANDERS        -.511         96   .9999501   .9974344   .9999997 {txt}{c |}
4013. {c |} {res} MARKEY         -.503        100   .9999724     .99836   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4014. {c |} {res} BOOKER         -.489         99   .9999697    .998238   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4015. {c |} {res} UDALL          -.459         97   .9999638   .9979678   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4016. {c |} {res} BOXER          -.454         98   .9999691    .998195   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4017. {c |} {res} FRANKEN        -.454         99   .9999732   .9983802   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4018. {c |} {res} BROWN          -.445         99   .9999739   .9984124   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4019. {c |} {res} WHITEHOUSE     -.443         96   .9999603   .9978176   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4020. {c |} {res} SCHATZ         -.435         97   .9999664    .998071   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4021. {c |} {res} MERKLEY        -.433         99   .9999748   .9984528   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4022. {c |} {res} REED           -.395         99   .9999774   .9985632   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4023. {c |} {res} BLUMENTHAL     -.388         97   .9999704   .9982353   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4024. {c |} {res} LEAHY          -.378         99   .9999783   .9986048   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4025. {c |} {res} MIKULSKI       -.373         98   .9999752   .9984558   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4026. {c |} {res} DURBIN          -.37         98   .9999754   .9984632   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4027. {c |} {res} MENENDEZ       -.366         97   .9999719   .9982972   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4028. {c |} {res} SCHUMER        -.354         98   .9999762   .9984999   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4029. {c |} {res} MURRAY         -.346         93   .9999526   .9974652   .9999997 {txt}{c |}
4030. {c |} {res} CARDIN         -.333         98   .9999772   .9985424   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4031. {c |} {res} STABENOW        -.33         95   .9999651   .9979903   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4032. {c |} {res} WYDEN          -.317         94   .9999608    .997798   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4033. {c |} {res} MURPHY         -.315         97   .9999744   .9984087   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4034. {c |} {res} COONS          -.312         95   .9999662   .9980314   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4035. {c |} {res} GILLIBRAND     -.309        100   .9999836   .9988651   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4036. {c |} {res} CASEY          -.301         91   .9999419   .9970343   .9999996 {txt}{c |}
4037. {c |} {res} SHAHEEN        -.296         92   .9999498   .9973395   .9999997 {txt}{c |}
4038. {c |} {res} CANTWELL       -.292         93   .9999565   .9976132   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4039. {c |} {res} HEINRICH       -.283         96   .9999718   .9982814   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4040. {c |} {res} REID           -.278         99   .9999818   .9987688   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4041. {c |} {res} FEINSTEIN      -.269         89   .9999266    .996454   .9999995 {txt}{c |}
4042. {c |} {res} KLOBUCHAR      -.245         93   .9999585   .9976925   .9999998 {txt}{c |}
4043. {c |} {res} KAINE          -.236         87   .9999065   .9957417   .9999993 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4044. {c |} {res} PETERS         -.233         97   .9999767   .9985087   .9999999 {txt}{c |}
4045. {c |} {res} BENNET         -.219         86   .9998942   .9953257   .9999992 {txt}{c |}
4046. {c |} {res} TESTER         -.216         88   .9999191   .9961769   .9999995 {txt}{c |}
4047. {c |} {res} WARNER          -.21         83   .9998439     .99375   .9999987 {txt}{c |}
4048. {c |} {res} NELSON         -.191         89   .9999298   .9965631   .9999995 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4049. {c |} {res} KING           -.179         84   .9998636    .994348    .999999 {txt}{c |}
4050. {c |} {res} CARPER         -.178         87   .9999082   .9957961   .9999993 {txt}{c |}
4051. {c |} {res} HEITKAMP        -.17         71   .9993211   .9815759   .9999922 {txt}{c |}
4052. {c |} {res} MCCASKILL       -.15         78   .9997064   .9900225   .9999973 {txt}{c |}
4053. {c |} {res} DONNELLY       -.124         72    .999388   .9829279   .9999931 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4054. {c |} {res} MANCHIN         -.07         63   .9982459   .9637442   .9999736 {txt}{c |}
4055. {c |} {res} COLLINS           .1         63   .3880813   .2756622   .5108219 {txt}{c |}
4056. {c |} {res} MURKOWSKI       .203         78    .293816   .2129399   .3865663 {txt}{c |}
4057. {c |} {res} CAPITO          .259         87   .2407205   .1726801   .3211999 {txt}{c |}
4058. {c |} {res} KIRK            .275         70   .2960583   .2066566   .3999542 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4059. {c |} {res} COCHRAN         .286         90   .2205804    .156317   .2977931 {txt}{c |}
4060. {c |} {res} ALEXANDER       .325         84   .2250049   .1582177   .3053805 {txt}{c |}
4061. {c |} {res} GRASSLEY        .341         96   .1813817   .1236864   .2535149 {txt}{c |}
4062. {c |} {res} HOEVEN          .343         94   .1864984   .1280548   .2591028 {txt}{c |}
4063. {c |} {res} AYOTTE          .356         74   .2454618   .1679402    .338945 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4064. {c |} {res} COATS           .372         94   .1753594   .1188218   .2465158 {txt}{c |}
4065. {c |} {res} PORTMAN         .378         84   .2027389   .1392472   .2809409 {txt}{c |}
4066. {c |} {res} MCCAIN          .379         90   .1841636   .1257209   .2570819 {txt}{c |}
4067. {c |} {res} WICKER           .38         96   .1666853   .1116183   .2367711 {txt}{c |}
4068. {c |} {res} CORKER          .385         88   .1876211   .1281011   .2617435 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4069. {c |} {res} HATCH           .386         90    .181331   .1233393   .2539361 {txt}{c |}
4070. {c |} {res} BOOZMAN         .404         99   .1496955   .0974901   .2178443 {txt}{c |}
4071. {c |} {res} MORAN           .405         92   .1680059   .1125458   .2385264 {txt}{c |}
4072. {c |} {res} MCCONNELL       .409         86   .1834655   .1238297   .2583564 {txt}{c |}
4073. {c |} {res} ISAKSON          .41         95   .1578911     .10441   .2267753 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4074. {c |} {res} THUNE           .413         94   .1593951    .105607   .2285412 {txt}{c |}
4075. {c |} {res} ROBERTS         .416         96   .1529497   .1003605   .2211758 {txt}{c |}
4076. {c |} {res} GRAHAM          .418         83   .1884457   .1265358   .2661967 {txt}{c |}
4077. {c |} {res} BLUNT           .437         96   .1449216   .0938053   .2120725 {txt}{c |}
4078. {c |} {res} SHELBY           .44         95   .1462917   .0948895   .2136825 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4079. {c |} {res} ROUNDS          .447         91   .1538202   .1005508   .2230444 {txt}{c |}
4080. {c |} {res} HELLER           .45         79   .1859619   .1217674   .2677756 {txt}{c |}
4081. {c |} {res} CASSIDY         .461         96   .1357784   .0863757   .2017032 {txt}{c |}
4082. {c |} {res} BURR            .464         93   .1419467   .0911177   .2091644 {txt}{c |}
4083. {c |} {res} GARDNER         .468         88   .1530462   .0990403   .2236655 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4084. {c |} {res} FISCHER          .48         97   .1262893   .0787677   .1908392 {txt}{c |}
4085. {c |} {res} ERNST             .5         96   .1211026   .0745685     .18502 {txt}{c |}
4086. {c |} {res} SULLIVAN        .501         94   .1252223   .0776562   .1901008 {txt}{c |}
4087. {c |} {res} VITTER          .506         97   .1166958   .0711289   .1798596 {txt}{c |}
4088. {c |} {res} CORNYN           .51         92   .1263185   .0781887   .1919934 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4089. {c |} {res} CRAPO           .511         97   .1148707   .0696859   .1777652 {txt}{c |}
4090. {c |} {res} DAINES          .518         93   .1209812   .0740835   .1856194 {txt}{c |}
4091. {c |} {res} TILLIS          .525         94    .116145   .0703843   .1798265 {txt}{c |}
4092. {c |} {res} BARASSO         .547         96    .103947   .0610402   .1653624 {txt}{c |}
4093. {c |} {res} ENZI            .553         94   .1057935    .062214   .1680306 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4094. {c |} {res} SESSIONS        .557         95   .1023555   .0596835   .1637774 {txt}{c |}
4095. {c |} {res} INHOFE          .559         98   .0958843   .0549997   .1556413 {txt}{c |}
4096. {c |} {res} LANKFORD        .567         96    .096894   .0555958    .157196 {txt}{c |}
4097. {c |} {res} RUBIO           .601         97   .0836198    .045703   .1413603 {txt}{c |}
4098. {c |} {res} JOHNSON         .627         91   .0851786   .0458898   .1454774 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4099. {c |} {res} TOOMEY          .641         93   .0772051   .0404508    .135063 {txt}{c |}
4100. {c |} {res} COTTON          .649         98   .0671631   .0339663   .1211892 {txt}{c |}
4101. {c |} {res} PERDUE           .66         96    .066787    .033499   .1212775 {txt}{c |}
4102. {c |} {res} RISCH           .672         99    .059276   .0286552   .1110764 {txt}{c |}
4103. {c |} {res} SCOTT            .69         96   .0582153   .0276681   .1105441 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
4104. {c |} {res} SASSE           .835         97   .0254183   .0084888   .0644414 {txt}{c |}
4105. {c |} {res} FLAKE           .875         89   .0240064   .0073386   .0649793 {txt}{c |}
4106. {c |} {res} PAUL            .936         84   .0177621   .0044409   .0561324 {txt}{c |}
4107. {c |} {res} LEE             .943         89   .0146715   .0035191   .0481904 {txt}{c |}
4108. {c |} {res} CRUZ            .955         90   .0129814   .0029577   .0444625 {txt}{c |}
      {c BLC}{hline 15}{c -}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c -}{hline 10}{c BRC}

{com}. 
. use "C:\Users\mmak\Desktop\Forecasting 2016 RP v1.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***Figure 1 (Out of Sample Forecasts)
. ***Basinger and Mak Models
. ***Out-of-Sample Forecasts
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 1, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3303{col 28}      202{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3505
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       74{col 28}      335{txt}  {c |}  {res}      409
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3377{col 28}      537{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3914

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.81%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.38%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.24%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.91%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.62%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.19%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.76%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.09%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.95%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_1, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_1 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_1 = 1 if oos_1 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_1

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_1
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       345        210 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        80      3,373 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       425      3,583 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_1 if counter==1

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_1
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        10          6 {txt}{c |}{res}        16 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         6         57 {txt}{c |}{res}        63 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        16         63 {txt}{c |}{res}        79 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 2, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3263{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3470
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}      427
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3344{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3897

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.57%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.03%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.03%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.43%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.97%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.97%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.61%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_2, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_2 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_2 = 1 if oos_2 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_2

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_2
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       346        209 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       427      3,581 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_2 if counter==2

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_2
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 3, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3263{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3472
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3344{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3897

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   93.98%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    6.02%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.56%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_3, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_3 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_3 = 1 if oos_3 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_3

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_3
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       344        211 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       425      3,583 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_3 if counter==3

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_3
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 4, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3296{col 28}      201{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3497
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       82{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}      430
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3378{col 28}      549{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3927

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.57%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   63.39%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.25%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.93%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   36.61%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.43%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.75%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.07%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.79%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_4, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_4 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_4 = 1 if oos_4 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_4

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_4
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       348        207 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        82      3,371 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       430      3,578 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_4 if counter==4

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_4
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         4 {txt}{c |}{res}         4 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        62 {txt}{c |}{res}        62 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        66 {txt}{c |}{res}        66 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 5, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3274{col 28}      196{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3470
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       70{col 28}      357{txt}  {c |}  {res}      427
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3344{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3897

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.91%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   64.56%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.35%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   83.61%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   35.44%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.09%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.65%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   16.39%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   93.17%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_5, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_5 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_5 = 1 if oos_5 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_5

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_5
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       357        198 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        96      3,357 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       453      3,555 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_5 if counter==5

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_5
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        26         70 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        26         70 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 6, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3265{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3474
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3346{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3899

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   93.98%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    6.02%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.56%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_6, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_6 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_6 = 1 if oos_6 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_6

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_6
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       344        211 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       425      3,583 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_6 if counter==6

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_6
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 7, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3264{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3473
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3345{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3898

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   93.98%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    6.02%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.56%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_7, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_7 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_7 = 1 if oos_7 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_7

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_7
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       344        211 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       425      3,583 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_7 if counter==7

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_7
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 8, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3265{col 28}      208{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3473
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      345{txt}  {c |}  {res}      426
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3346{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3899

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.39%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.01%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.99%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.61%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.99%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.01%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.59%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_8, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_8 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_8 = 1 if oos_8 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_8

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_8
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       345        210 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       426      3,582 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_8 if counter==8

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_8
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 9, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3263{col 28}      208{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3471
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      345{txt}  {c |}  {res}      426
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3344{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3897

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.39%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.01%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.99%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.61%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.99%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.01%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.58%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_9, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_9 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_9 = 1 if oos_9 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_9

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_9
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       345        210 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       426      3,582 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_9 if counter==9

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_9
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 10, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3264{col 28}      210{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3474
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      343{txt}  {c |}  {res}      424
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3345{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3898

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.03%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   93.96%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.90%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.97%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    6.04%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.10%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.53%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_10, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_10 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_10 = 1 if oos_10 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_10

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_10
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       343        212 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       424      3,584 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_10 if counter==10

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     0
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 11, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3264{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3473
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3345{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3898

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   93.98%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    6.02%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.56%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_11, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_11 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_11 = 1 if oos_11 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_11

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_11
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       344        211 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       425      3,583 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_11 if counter==11

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     1
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 12, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3290{col 28}      200{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3490
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       77{col 28}      345{txt}  {c |}  {res}      422
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3367{col 28}      545{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3912

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.71%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   63.30%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.27%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.75%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   36.70%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.29%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.73%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.25%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.92%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_12, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_12 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_12 = 1 if oos_12 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_12

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_12
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       347        208 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        82      3,371 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       429      3,579 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_12 if counter==12

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_12
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         2          6 {txt}{c |}{res}         8 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         5         68 {txt}{c |}{res}        73 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         7         74 {txt}{c |}{res}        81 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 13, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3315{col 28}      200{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3515
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       77{col 28}      337{txt}  {c |}  {res}      414
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3392{col 28}      537{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3929

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.73%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.76%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.31%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.40%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.24%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.27%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.69%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.60%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.95%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_13, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_13 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_13 = 1 if oos_13 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_13

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_13
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       344        211 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        78      3,375 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       422      3,586 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_13 if counter==13

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_13
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         7          9 {txt}{c |}{res}        16 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         1         47 {txt}{c |}{res}        48 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         8         56 {txt}{c |}{res}        64 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 14, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3266{col 28}      210{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3476
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       80{col 28}      343{txt}  {c |}  {res}      423
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3346{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3899

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.61%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.03%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   93.96%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.09%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.97%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.39%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    6.04%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.91%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.56%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_14, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_14 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_14 = 1 if oos_14 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_14

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_14
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       343        212 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        80      3,373 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       423      3,585 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_14 if counter==14

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     4
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        94 {txt}{c |}{res}        94 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        94 {txt}{c |}{res}        94 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 15, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3288{col 28}      198{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3486
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3369{col 28}      542{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3911

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.60%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   63.47%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.32%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   36.53%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.40%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.68%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.87%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_15, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_15 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_15 = 1 if oos_15 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_15

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_15
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       345        210 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        82      3,371 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       427      3,581 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_15 if counter==15

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_15
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         1         10 {txt}{c |}{res}        11 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         1         70 {txt}{c |}{res}        71 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         2         80 {txt}{c |}{res}        82 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 16, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3264{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3471
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}      427
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3345{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3898

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.57%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.04%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.03%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.43%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.96%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.97%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.61%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_16, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_16 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_16 = 1 if oos_16 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_16

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_16
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       346        209 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       427      3,581 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_16 if counter==16

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     6
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        95 {txt}{c |}{res}        95 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        95 {txt}{c |}{res}        95 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 17, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3265{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3472
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       80{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}      426
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3345{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3898

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.61%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.57%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.04%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.22%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.43%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.39%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.96%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.78%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.64%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_17, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_17 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_17 = 1 if oos_17 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_17

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_17
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       346        209 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        80      3,373 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       426      3,582 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_17 if counter==17

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     7
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        95 {txt}{c |}{res}        95 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        95 {txt}{c |}{res}        95 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 18, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3288{col 28}      179{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3467
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       82{col 28}      357{txt}  {c |}  {res}      439
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3370{col 28}      536{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3906

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.57%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   66.60%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.84%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.32%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   33.40%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.43%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.16%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.68%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   93.32%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_18, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_18 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_18 = 1 if oos_18 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_18

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_18
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       357        198 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        82      3,371 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       439      3,569 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_18 if counter==18

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     8
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        17 {txt}{c |}{res}        17 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        70 {txt}{c |}{res}        70 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        87 {txt}{c |}{res}        87 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 19, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3261{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3468
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       79{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3340{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3893

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.63%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.57%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.03%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.41%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.43%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.37%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.97%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.59%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.65%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_19, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_19 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_19 = 1 if oos_19 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_19

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_19
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       346        209 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        80      3,373 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       426      3,582 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_19 if counter==19

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_19
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}         1         99 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         1         99 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 20, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3259{col 28}      210{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3469
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      343{txt}  {c |}  {res}      424
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3340{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3893

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.57%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.03%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   93.95%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.90%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.97%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.43%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    6.05%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.10%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.53%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_20, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_20 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_20 = 1 if oos_20 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_20

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_20
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       343        212 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       424      3,584 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_20 if counter==20

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_2
confirmati {c |}     0
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}       100 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       100 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 21, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3259{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3466
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}      427
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3340{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3893

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.57%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.57%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.03%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.03%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.43%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.43%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.97%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.97%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.60%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_21, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_21 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_21 = 1 if oos_21 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_21

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_21
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       346        209 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       427      3,581 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_21 if counter==21

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_2
confirmati {c |}     1
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}       100 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       100 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 22, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3290{col 28}      193{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3483
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      349{txt}  {c |}  {res}      430
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3371{col 28}      542{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3913

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.60%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   64.39%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.46%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.16%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   35.61%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.40%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.54%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.84%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   93.00%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_22, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_22 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_22 = 1 if oos_22 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_22

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_22
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       349        206 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       430      3,578 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_22 if counter==22

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_2
confirmati {c |}     2
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        11 {txt}{c |}{res}        11 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        69 {txt}{c |}{res}        69 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        80 {txt}{c |}{res}        80 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 23, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3327{col 28}      176{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3503
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       69{col 28}      334{txt}  {c |}  {res}      403
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3396{col 28}      510{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3906

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.97%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   65.49%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.98%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   82.88%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   34.51%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.03%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.02%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   17.12%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   93.73%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_23, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_23 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_23 = 1 if oos_23 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_23

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_23
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       339        216 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        69      3,384 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       408      3,600 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_23 if counter==23

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_23
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         5         38 {txt}{c |}{res}        43 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         0         44 {txt}{c |}{res}        44 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         5         82 {txt}{c |}{res}        87 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 24, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3286{col 28}      204{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3490
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       80{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}      426
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3366{col 28}      550{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3916

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.62%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.91%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.15%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.22%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.09%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.38%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.85%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.78%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.75%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_24, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_24 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_24 = 1 if oos_24 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_24

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_24
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       346        209 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        80      3,373 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       426      3,582 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_24 if counter==24

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_2
confirmati {c |}     4
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         3 {txt}{c |}{res}         3 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        74 {txt}{c |}{res}        74 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        77 {txt}{c |}{res}        77 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 25, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3328{col 28}      192{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3520
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       67{col 28}      306{txt}  {c |}  {res}      373
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3395{col 28}      498{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3893

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   98.03%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   61.45%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.55%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   82.04%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   38.55%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    1.97%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.45%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   17.96%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   93.35%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_25, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_25 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_25 = 1 if oos_25 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_25

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_25
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       343        212 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        69      3,384 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       412      3,596 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_25 if counter==25

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_25
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        37         18 {txt}{c |}{res}        55 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         2         43 {txt}{c |}{res}        45 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        39         61 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 26, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3318{col 28}      204{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3522
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       77{col 28}      298{txt}  {c |}  {res}      375
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3395{col 28}      502{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3897

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.73%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   59.36%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.21%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   79.47%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   40.64%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.27%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.79%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   20.53%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.79%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_26, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_26 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_26 = 1 if oos_26 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_26

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_26
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       346        209 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        88      3,365 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       434      3,574 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_26 if counter==26

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_26
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        48          3 {txt}{c |}{res}        51 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        11         34 {txt}{c |}{res}        45 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        59         37 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 27, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3265{col 28}      204{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3469
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      349{txt}  {c |}  {res}      430
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3346{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3899

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   63.11%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.12%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.16%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   36.89%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.88%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.84%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.69%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_27, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_27 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_27 = 1 if oos_27 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_27

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_27
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       349        206 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       430      3,578 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_27 if counter==27

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_2
confirmati {c |}     7
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        94 {txt}{c |}{res}        94 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        94 {txt}{c |}{res}        94 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 28, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3270{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3476
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}      427
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3351{col 28}      552{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3903

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.58%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.68%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.07%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.03%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.32%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.42%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.93%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.97%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.65%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_28, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_28 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_28 = 1 if oos_28 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_28

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_28
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       346        209 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       427      3,581 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_28 if counter==28

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_2
confirmati {c |}     8
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         1 {txt}{c |}{res}         1 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89 {txt}{c |}{res}        89 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        90 {txt}{c |}{res}        90 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 29, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3301{col 28}      194{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3495
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       71{col 28}      333{txt}  {c |}  {res}      404
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3372{col 28}      527{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3899

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.89%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   63.19%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.45%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   82.43%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   36.81%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.11%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.55%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   17.57%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   93.20%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_29, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_29 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_29 = 1 if oos_29 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_29

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_29
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       334        221 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        71      3,382 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       405      3,603 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_29 if counter==29

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_29
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         1         25 {txt}{c |}{res}        26 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         0         68 {txt}{c |}{res}        68 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         1         93 {txt}{c |}{res}        94 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 30, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3262{col 28}      205{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3467
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       80{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}      428
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3342{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3895

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.61%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.93%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.09%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.31%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.07%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.39%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.91%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.69%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.68%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_30, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_30 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_30 = 1 if oos_30 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_30

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_30
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       348        207 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        80      3,373 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       428      3,580 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_30 if counter==30

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     0
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        98 {txt}{c |}{res}        98 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        98 {txt}{c |}{res}        98 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 31, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3261{col 28}      210{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3471
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       80{col 28}      343{txt}  {c |}  {res}      423
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3341{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3894

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.61%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.03%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   93.95%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.09%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.97%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.39%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    6.05%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.91%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.55%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_31, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_31 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_31 = 1 if oos_31 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_31

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_31
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       343        212 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        80      3,373 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       423      3,585 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_31 if counter==31

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     1
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        99 {txt}{c |}{res}        99 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        99 {txt}{c |}{res}        99 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 32, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3303{col 28}      204{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3507
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       73{col 28}      316{txt}  {c |}  {res}      389
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3376{col 28}      520{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3896

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.84%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   60.77%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.18%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.23%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   39.23%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.16%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.82%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.77%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.89%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_32, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_32 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_32 = 1 if oos_32 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_32

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_32
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       345        210 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        78      3,375 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       423      3,585 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_32 if counter==32

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_32
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        29          4 {txt}{c |}{res}        33 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         5         60 {txt}{c |}{res}        65 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        34         64 {txt}{c |}{res}        98 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 33, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3261{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3468
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       82{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}      428
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3343{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3896

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.55%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.57%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.03%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.84%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.43%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.45%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.97%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.16%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.58%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_33, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_33 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_33 = 1 if oos_33 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_33

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_33
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       346        209 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        82      3,371 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       428      3,580 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_33 if counter==33

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     3
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        98 {txt}{c |}{res}        98 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        98 {txt}{c |}{res}        98 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 34, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3329{col 28}      204{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3533
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       69{col 28}      291{txt}  {c |}  {res}      360
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3398{col 28}      495{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3893

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.97%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   58.79%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.23%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   41.21%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.03%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.77%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.99%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_34, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_34 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_34 = 1 if oos_34 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_34

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_34
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       327        228 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        69      3,384 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       396      3,612 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_34 if counter==34

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_34
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        36         22 {txt}{c |}{res}        58 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         0         42 {txt}{c |}{res}        42 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        36         64 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 35, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3259{col 28}      199{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3458
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       84{col 28}      354{txt}  {c |}  {res}      438
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3343{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3896

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.49%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   64.01%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.25%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.82%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   35.99%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.51%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.75%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.18%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.74%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_35, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_35 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_35 = 1 if oos_35 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_35

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_35
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       354        201 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        84      3,369 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       438      3,570 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_35 if counter==35

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     5
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        97 {txt}{c |}{res}        97 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        97 {txt}{c |}{res}        97 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 36, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3271{col 28}      195{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3466
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       79{col 28}      350{txt}  {c |}  {res}      429
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3350{col 28}      545{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3895

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.64%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   64.22%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.37%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.59%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   35.78%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.36%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.63%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.41%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.97%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_36, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_36 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_36 = 1 if oos_36 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_36

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_36
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       353        202 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        83      3,370 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       436      3,572 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_36 if counter==36

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_36
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         3          6 {txt}{c |}{res}         9 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         4         86 {txt}{c |}{res}        90 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         7         92 {txt}{c |}{res}        99 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 37, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3317{col 28}      203{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3520
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       71{col 28}      302{txt}  {c |}  {res}      373
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3388{col 28}      505{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3893

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.90%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   59.80%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.23%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.97%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   40.20%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.10%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.77%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.03%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.96%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_37, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_37 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_37 = 1 if oos_37 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_37

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_37
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       348        207 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        82      3,371 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       430      3,578 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_37 if counter==37

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_37
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        46          2 {txt}{c |}{res}        48 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        11         41 {txt}{c |}{res}        52 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        57         43 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 38, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3265{col 28}      203{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3468
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       79{col 28}      347{txt}  {c |}  {res}      426
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3344{col 28}      550{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3894

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.64%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   63.09%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.15%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   81.46%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   36.91%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.36%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.85%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   18.54%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.76%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_38, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_38 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_38 = 1 if oos_38 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_38

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_38
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       347        208 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        79      3,374 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       426      3,582 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_38 if counter==38

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     8
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         3 {txt}{c |}{res}         3 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        99 {txt}{c |}{res}        99 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 39, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3278{col 28}      193{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3471
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       75{col 28}      351{txt}  {c |}  {res}      426
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3353{col 28}      544{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3897

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.76%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   64.52%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.44%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   82.39%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   35.48%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.24%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.56%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   17.61%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   93.12%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_39, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_39 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_39 = 1 if oos_39 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_39

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_39
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       355        200 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       436      3,572 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_39 if counter==39

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_39
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         4          5 {txt}{c |}{res}         9 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         6         81 {txt}{c |}{res}        87 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        10         86 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 40, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3284{col 28}      196{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3480
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       79{col 28}      335{txt}  {c |}  {res}      414
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3363{col 28}      531{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3894

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.65%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   63.09%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.37%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.92%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   36.91%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.35%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.63%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.08%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.94%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_40, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_40 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_40 = 1 if oos_40 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_40

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_40
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       339        216 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        79      3,374 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       418      3,590 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_40 if counter==40

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_40
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         4         18 {txt}{c |}{res}        22 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         0         78 {txt}{c |}{res}        78 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         4         96 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 41, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3311{col 28}      210{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3521
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       72{col 28}      301{txt}  {c |}  {res}      373
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3383{col 28}      511{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3894

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.87%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   58.90%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.04%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.70%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   41.10%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.13%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.96%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.30%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.76%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_41, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_41 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_41 = 1 if oos_41 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_41

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_41
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       333        222 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        73      3,380 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       406      3,602 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_41 if counter==41

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_41
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        32         10 {txt}{c |}{res}        42 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         1         57 {txt}{c |}{res}        58 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        33         67 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 42, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3300{col 28}      211{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3511
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       74{col 28}      310{txt}  {c |}  {res}      384
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3374{col 28}      521{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3895

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.81%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   59.50%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   93.99%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.73%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   40.50%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.19%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    6.01%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.27%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.68%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_42, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_42 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_42 = 1 if oos_42 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_42

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_42
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       341        214 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        78      3,375 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       419      3,589 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_42 if counter==42

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_42
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        31          1 {txt}{c |}{res}        32 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         4         63 {txt}{c |}{res}        67 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        35         64 {txt}{c |}{res}        99 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 43, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3302{col 28}      208{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3510
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       76{col 28}      309{txt}  {c |}  {res}      385
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3378{col 28}      517{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3895

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.75%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   59.77%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.07%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.26%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   40.23%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.25%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.93%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.74%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.71%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_43, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_43 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_43 = 1 if oos_43 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_43

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_43
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       342        213 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        79      3,374 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       421      3,587 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_43 if counter==43

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_43
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        33          4 {txt}{c |}{res}        37 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         3         60 {txt}{c |}{res}        63 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        36         64 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp partyunity devpu outparty out_partyunity out_devpu  if counter != 44, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3359{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3568
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       81{col 28}      344{txt}  {c |}  {res}      425
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3440{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3993

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.65%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   62.21%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   94.14%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   80.94%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   37.79%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.35%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    5.86%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   19.06%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   92.74%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_44, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_44 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_44 = 1 if oos_44 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_44

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_44
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       344        211 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        81      3,372 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       425      3,583 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_44 if counter==44
{txt}no observations

{com}. 
. quietly gen pred_oos_all = .
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_1      if counter==1
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_2      if counter==2
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_3      if counter==3
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_4      if counter==4
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_5      if counter==5
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_6      if counter==6
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_7      if counter==7
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_8      if counter==8
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_9      if counter==9
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_10     if counter==10
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_11     if counter==11
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_12     if counter==12
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_13     if counter==13
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_14     if counter==14
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_15     if counter==15
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_16     if counter==16
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_17     if counter==17
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_18     if counter==18
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_19     if counter==19
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_20     if counter==20
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_21     if counter==21
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_22     if counter==22
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_23     if counter==23
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_24     if counter==24
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_25     if counter==25
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_26     if counter==26
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_27     if counter==27
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_28     if counter==28
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_29     if counter==29
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_30     if counter==30
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_31     if counter==31
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_32     if counter==32
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_33     if counter==33
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_34     if counter==34
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_35     if counter==35
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_36     if counter==36
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_37     if counter==37
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_38     if counter==38
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_39     if counter==39
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_40     if counter==40
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_41     if counter==41
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_42     if counter==42
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_43     if counter==43
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_44     if counter==44
{txt}
{com}. lab var pred_oos_all "Out-of-Sample Forecasts"
{txt}
{com}. 
. save "C:\Users\mmak\Desktop\Forecasting 2016 RP v2 BM Forecasts.dta"
{txt}file C:\Users\mmak\Desktop\Forecasting 2016 RP v2 BM Forecasts.dta saved

{com}. 
. use "C:\Users\mmak\Desktop\Forecasting 2016 RP v1.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***Segal Models
. ***Out-of-Sample Forecasts
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 1, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3298{col 28}      342{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3640
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       85{col 28}      196{txt}  {c |}  {res}      281
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3383{col 28}      538{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3921

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.49%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   36.43%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.60%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.75%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   63.57%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.51%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.40%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.25%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.11%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_1, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_1 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_1 = 1 if oos_1 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_1

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_1
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        91      3,362 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       297      3,711 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_1 if counter==1

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_1
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        10          6 {txt}{c |}{res}        16 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         6         57 {txt}{c |}{res}        63 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        16         63 {txt}{c |}{res}        79 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 2, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3261{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3609
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3350{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3904

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.34%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.36%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.66%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.64%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.81%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_2, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_2 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_2 = 1 if oos_2 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_2

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_2
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_2 if counter==2

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_2
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 3, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3261{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3609
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3350{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3904

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.34%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.36%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.66%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.64%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.81%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_3, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_3 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_3 = 1 if oos_3 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_3

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_3
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_3 if counter==3

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_3
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 4, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3295{col 28}      345{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3640
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      205{txt}  {c |}  {res}      294
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3384{col 28}      550{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3934

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.37%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.27%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.52%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.73%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.73%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.63%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.48%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.27%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.97%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_4, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_4 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_4 = 1 if oos_4 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_4

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_4
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       205        350 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       294      3,714 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_4 if counter==4

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_4
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         4 {txt}{c |}{res}         4 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        62 {txt}{c |}{res}        62 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        66 {txt}{c |}{res}        66 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 5, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3275{col 28}      330{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3605
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       75{col 28}      224{txt}  {c |}  {res}      299
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3350{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3904

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.76%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   40.43%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.85%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   74.92%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   59.57%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.24%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.15%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   25.08%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.63%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_5, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_5 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_5 = 1 if oos_5 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_5

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_5
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       224        331 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        98      3,355 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       322      3,686 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_5 if counter==5

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_5
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        23         73 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        23         73 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 6, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3262{col 28}      349{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3611
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      205{txt}  {c |}  {res}      294
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3351{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3905

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.34%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.00%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.34%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.73%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   63.00%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.66%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.66%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.27%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.78%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_6, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_6 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_6 = 1 if oos_6 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_6

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_6
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       205        350 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       294      3,714 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_6 if counter==6

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_6
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 7, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3261{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3609
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3350{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3904

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.34%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.36%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.66%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.64%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.81%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_7, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_7 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_7 = 1 if oos_7 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_7

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_7
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_7 if counter==7

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_7
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 8, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3258{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3606
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       93{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      299
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3351{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3905

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.22%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.35%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   68.90%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.78%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.65%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   31.10%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.71%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_8, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_8 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_8 = 1 if oos_8 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_8

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_8
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        93      3,360 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       299      3,709 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_8 if counter==8

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_8
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 9, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3257{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3603
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       93{col 28}      208{txt}  {c |}  {res}      301
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3350{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3904

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.22%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.55%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.40%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.10%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.45%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.78%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.60%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.90%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.76%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_9, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_9 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_9 = 1 if oos_9 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_9

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_9
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       208        347 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        93      3,360 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       301      3,707 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_9 if counter==9

{txt}confirmati {c |} pred_oos_9
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 10, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3262{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3610
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3351{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3905

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.34%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.36%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.66%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.64%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.81%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_10, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_10 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_10 = 1 if oos_10 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_10

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_10
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_10 if counter==10

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     0
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 11, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3259{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3607
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       92{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      298
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3351{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3905

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.25%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.35%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.13%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.75%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.65%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.87%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.73%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_11, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_11 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_11 = 1 if oos_11 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_11

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_11
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        93      3,360 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       299      3,709 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_11 if counter==11

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_11
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}         1         95 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         1         95 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 12, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3286{col 28}      339{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3625
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       87{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}      294
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3373{col 28}      546{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3919

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.42%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.91%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.65%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   70.41%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.09%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.58%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.35%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   29.59%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.13%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_12, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_12 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_12 = 1 if oos_12 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_12

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_12
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       209        346 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        97      3,356 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       306      3,702 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_12 if counter==12

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_12
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         2          6 {txt}{c |}{res}         8 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        10         63 {txt}{c |}{res}        73 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        12         69 {txt}{c |}{res}        81 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 13, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3311{col 28}      343{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3654
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       87{col 28}      195{txt}  {c |}  {res}      282
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3398{col 28}      538{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3936

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.44%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   36.25%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.61%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.15%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   63.75%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.56%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.39%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.85%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.08%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_13, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_13 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_13 = 1 if oos_13 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_13

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_13
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       203        352 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       292      3,716 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_13 if counter==13

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_13
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         8          8 {txt}{c |}{res}        16 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         2         46 {txt}{c |}{res}        48 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        10         54 {txt}{c |}{res}        64 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 14, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3263{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3611
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3352{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3906

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.34%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.36%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.66%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.64%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.81%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_14, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_14 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_14 = 1 if oos_14 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_14

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_14
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_14 if counter==14

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     4
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        94 {txt}{c |}{res}        94 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        94 {txt}{c |}{res}        94 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 15, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3284{col 28}      336{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3620
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       91{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}      298
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3375{col 28}      543{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3918

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.30%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   38.12%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.72%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.46%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   61.88%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.70%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.28%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.54%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.10%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_15, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_15 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_15 = 1 if oos_15 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_15

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_15
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       207        348 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        95      3,358 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       302      3,706 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_15 if counter==15

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_15
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         0         11 {txt}{c |}{res}        11 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         4         67 {txt}{c |}{res}        71 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         4         78 {txt}{c |}{res}        82 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 16, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3257{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3605
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       94{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      300
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3351{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3905

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.19%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.35%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   68.67%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.81%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.65%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   31.33%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.68%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_16, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_16 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_16 = 1 if oos_16 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_16

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_16
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        94      3,359 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       300      3,708 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_16 if counter==16

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     6
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        95 {txt}{c |}{res}        95 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        95 {txt}{c |}{res}        95 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 17, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3261{col 28}      350{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3611
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       90{col 28}      204{txt}  {c |}  {res}      294
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3351{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3905

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.31%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   36.82%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.31%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.39%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   63.18%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.69%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.69%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.61%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.73%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_17, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_17 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_17 = 1 if oos_17 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_17

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_17
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       204        351 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        90      3,363 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       294      3,714 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_17 if counter==17

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     7
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        95 {txt}{c |}{res}        95 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        95 {txt}{c |}{res}        95 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 18, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3281{col 28}      331{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3612
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       95{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      301
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3376{col 28}      537{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3913

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.19%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   38.36%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.84%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   68.44%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   61.64%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.81%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.16%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   31.56%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.11%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_18, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_18 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_18 = 1 if oos_18 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_18

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_18
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        95      3,358 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       301      3,707 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_18 if counter==18

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_1
confirmati {c |}     8
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        17 {txt}{c |}{res}        17 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        70 {txt}{c |}{res}        70 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        87 {txt}{c |}{res}        87 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 19, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3253{col 28}      347{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3600
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       93{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}      300
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3346{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3900

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.22%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.36%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.36%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.00%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.64%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.78%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.64%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   31.00%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.72%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_19, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_19 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_19 = 1 if oos_19 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_19

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_19
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       207        348 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        96      3,357 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       303      3,705 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_19 if counter==19

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_19
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}         3         97 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         3         97 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 20, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3257{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3605
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3346{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3900

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.34%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.35%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.66%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.65%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.79%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_20, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_20 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_20 = 1 if oos_20 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_20

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_20
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_20 if counter==20

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_2
confirmati {c |}     0
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}       100 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       100 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 21, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3254{col 28}      347{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3601
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       92{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}      299
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3346{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3900

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.25%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.36%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.36%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.23%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.64%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.75%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.64%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.77%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.74%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_21, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_21 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_21 = 1 if oos_21 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_21

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_21
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       207        348 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        93      3,360 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       300      3,708 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_21 if counter==21

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_21
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}         1         99 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         1         99 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 22, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3288{col 28}      330{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3618
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      213{txt}  {c |}  {res}      302
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3377{col 28}      543{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3920

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.36%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   39.23%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.88%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   70.53%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   60.77%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.64%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.12%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   29.47%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.31%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_22, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_22 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_22 = 1 if oos_22 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_22

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_22
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       213        342 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        95      3,358 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       308      3,700 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_22 if counter==22

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_22
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         0         11 {txt}{c |}{res}        11 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         6         63 {txt}{c |}{res}        69 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         6         74 {txt}{c |}{res}        80 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 23, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3314{col 28}      323{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3637
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       88{col 28}      188{txt}  {c |}  {res}      276
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3402{col 28}      511{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3913

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.41%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   36.79%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   91.12%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   68.12%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   63.21%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.59%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    8.88%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   31.88%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.50%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_23, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_23 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_23 = 1 if oos_23 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_23

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_23
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       203        352 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       292      3,716 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_23 if counter==23

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_23
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        15         28 {txt}{c |}{res}        43 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         1         43 {txt}{c |}{res}        44 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        16         71 {txt}{c |}{res}        87 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 24, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3282{col 28}      347{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3629
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       90{col 28}      204{txt}  {c |}  {res}      294
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3372{col 28}      551{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3923

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.33%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.02%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.44%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.39%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.98%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.67%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.56%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.61%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.86%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_24, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_24 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_24 = 1 if oos_24 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_24

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_24
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       204        351 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        90      3,363 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       294      3,714 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_24 if counter==24

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_2
confirmati {c |}     4
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         3 {txt}{c |}{res}         3 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        74 {txt}{c |}{res}        74 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        77 {txt}{c |}{res}        77 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 25, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3317{col 28}      332{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3649
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       84{col 28}      167{txt}  {c |}  {res}      251
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3401{col 28}      499{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3900

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.53%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   33.47%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.90%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   66.53%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   66.53%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.47%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.10%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   33.47%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.33%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_25, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_25 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_25 = 1 if oos_25 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_25

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_25
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       205        350 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        92      3,361 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       297      3,711 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_25 if counter==25

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_25
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        38         17 {txt}{c |}{res}        55 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         8         37 {txt}{c |}{res}        45 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        46         54 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 26, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3323{col 28}      329{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3652
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       78{col 28}      174{txt}  {c |}  {res}      252
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3401{col 28}      503{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3904

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.71%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   34.59%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.99%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.05%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   65.41%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.29%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.01%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.95%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.57%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_26, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_26 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_26 = 1 if oos_26 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_26

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_26
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       215        340 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        95      3,358 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       310      3,698 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_26 if counter==26

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_26
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        41         10 {txt}{c |}{res}        51 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        17         28 {txt}{c |}{res}        45 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        58         38 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 27, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3258{col 28}      345{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3603
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       94{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}      303
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3352{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3906

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.20%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.73%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.42%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   68.98%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.27%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.80%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.58%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   31.02%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.76%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_27, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_27 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_27 = 1 if oos_27 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_27

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_27
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       209        346 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        94      3,359 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       303      3,705 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_27 if counter==27

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_2
confirmati {c |}     7
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        94 {txt}{c |}{res}        94 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        94 {txt}{c |}{res}        94 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 28, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3267{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3613
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       90{col 28}      207{txt}  {c |}  {res}      297
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3357{col 28}      553{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3910

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.32%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.43%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.42%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.70%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.57%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.68%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.58%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.30%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.85%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_28, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_28 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_28 = 1 if oos_28 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_28

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_28
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       207        348 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        90      3,363 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       297      3,711 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_28 if counter==28

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_2
confirmati {c |}     8
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         1 {txt}{c |}{res}         1 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89 {txt}{c |}{res}        89 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        90 {txt}{c |}{res}        90 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 29, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3290{col 28}      326{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3616
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       88{col 28}      202{txt}  {c |}  {res}      290
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3378{col 28}      528{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3906

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.39%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   38.26%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.98%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.66%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   61.74%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.61%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.02%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.34%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.40%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_29, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_29 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_29 = 1 if oos_29 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_29

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_29
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       205        350 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       294      3,714 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_29 if counter==29

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_29
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         3         23 {txt}{c |}{res}        26 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         1         67 {txt}{c |}{res}        68 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         4         90 {txt}{c |}{res}        94 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 30, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3258{col 28}      345{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3603
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       90{col 28}      209{txt}  {c |}  {res}      299
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3348{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3902

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.31%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.73%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.42%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.90%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.27%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.69%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.58%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.10%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.85%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_30, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_30 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_30 = 1 if oos_30 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_30

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_30
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       209        346 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        90      3,363 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       299      3,709 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_30 if counter==30

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     0
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        98 {txt}{c |}{res}        98 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        98 {txt}{c |}{res}        98 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 31, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3258{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3606
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3347{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3901

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.34%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.35%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.66%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.65%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.80%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_31, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_31 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_31 = 1 if oos_31 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_31

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_31
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_31 if counter==31

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     1
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        99 {txt}{c |}{res}        99 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        99 {txt}{c |}{res}        99 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 32, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3299{col 28}      343{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3642
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       83{col 28}      178{txt}  {c |}  {res}      261
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3382{col 28}      521{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3903

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.55%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   34.17%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.58%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   68.20%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   65.83%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.45%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.42%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   31.80%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.09%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_32, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_32 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_32 = 1 if oos_32 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_32

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_32
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       209        346 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        95      3,358 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       304      3,704 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_32 if counter==32

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_32
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        31          2 {txt}{c |}{res}        33 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        12         53 {txt}{c |}{res}        65 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        43         55 {txt}{c |}{res}        98 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 33, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3256{col 28}      346{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3602
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       93{col 28}      208{txt}  {c |}  {res}      301
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3349{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3903

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.22%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.55%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.39%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.10%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.45%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.78%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.61%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.90%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.75%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_33, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_33 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_33 = 1 if oos_33 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_33

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_33
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       208        347 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        93      3,360 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       301      3,707 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_33 if counter==33

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     3
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        98 {txt}{c |}{res}        98 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        98 {txt}{c |}{res}        98 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 34, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3319{col 28}      300{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3619
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       85{col 28}      196{txt}  {c |}  {res}      281
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3404{col 28}      496{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3900

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.50%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   39.52%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   91.71%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.75%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   60.48%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.50%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    8.29%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.25%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   90.13%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_34, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_34 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_34 = 1 if oos_34 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_34

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_34
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       198        357 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        85      3,368 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       283      3,725 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_34 if counter==34

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_34
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         2         56 {txt}{c |}{res}        58 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         0         42 {txt}{c |}{res}        42 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         2         98 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 35, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3259{col 28}      349{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3608
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       90{col 28}      205{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3349{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3903

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.31%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.00%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.33%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.49%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   63.00%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.69%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.67%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.51%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.75%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_35, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_35 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_35 = 1 if oos_35 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_35

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_35
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       205        350 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        90      3,363 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_35 if counter==35

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     5
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
       yes {c |}{res}        97 {txt}{c |}{res}        97 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        97 {txt}{c |}{res}        97 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 36, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3266{col 28}      339{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3605
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       90{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      296
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3356{col 28}      545{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3901

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.32%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.80%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.60%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.59%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.20%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.68%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.40%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.41%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.00%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_36, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_36 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_36 = 1 if oos_36 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_36

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_36
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        90      3,363 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       296      3,712 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_36 if counter==36

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     6
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         9 {txt}{c |}{res}         9 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        90 {txt}{c |}{res}        90 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        99 {txt}{c |}{res}        99 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 37, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3315{col 28}      347{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3662
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       79{col 28}      159{txt}  {c |}  {res}      238
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3394{col 28}      506{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3900

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.67%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   31.42%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.52%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   66.81%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   68.58%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.33%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.48%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   33.19%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.08%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_37, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_37 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_37 = 1 if oos_37 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_37

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_37
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       203        352 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        86      3,367 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       289      3,719 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_37 if counter==37

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_37
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        44          4 {txt}{c |}{res}        48 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         7         45 {txt}{c |}{res}        52 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        51         49 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 38, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3261{col 28}      345{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3606
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3350{col 28}      551{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3901

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.34%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.39%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.43%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.61%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.66%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.57%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   88.87%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_38, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_38 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_38 = 1 if oos_38 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_38

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_38
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_38 if counter==38

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_3
confirmati {c |}     8
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         3 {txt}{c |}{res}         3 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        96 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}        99 {txt}{c |}{res}        99 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 39, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3271{col 28}      340{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3611
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       88{col 28}      205{txt}  {c |}  {res}      293
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3359{col 28}      545{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3904

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.38%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.61%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.58%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.97%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.39%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.62%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.42%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.03%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.04%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_39, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_39 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_39 = 1 if oos_39 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_39

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_39
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_39 if counter==39

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_39
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         1          8 {txt}{c |}{res}         9 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         1         86 {txt}{c |}{res}        87 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         2         94 {txt}{c |}{res}        96 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 40, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3281{col 28}      329{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3610
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       87{col 28}      203{txt}  {c |}  {res}      290
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3368{col 28}      532{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3900

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.42%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   38.16%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.89%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   70.00%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   61.84%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.58%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.11%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.00%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.33%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_40, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_40 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_40 = 1 if oos_40 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_40

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_40
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       203        352 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        87      3,366 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       290      3,718 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_40 if counter==40

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_4
confirmati {c |}     0
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        22 {txt}{c |}{res}        22 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        78 {txt}{c |}{res}        78 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       100 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 41, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3305{col 28}      310{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3615
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       83{col 28}      202{txt}  {c |}  {res}      285
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3388{col 28}      512{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3900

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.55%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   39.45%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   91.42%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   70.88%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   60.55%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.45%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    8.58%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   29.12%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.92%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_41, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_41 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_41 = 1 if oos_41 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_41

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_41
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       202        353 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        83      3,370 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       285      3,723 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_41 if counter==41

           {txt}{c |} pred_oos_4
confirmati {c |}     1
   on vote {c |}         1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}        42 {txt}{c |}{res}        42 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        58 {txt}{c |}{res}        58 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       100 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 42, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3295{col 28}      323{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3618
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       84{col 28}      199{txt}  {c |}  {res}      283
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3379{col 28}      522{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3901

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.51%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   38.12%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   91.07%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   70.32%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   61.88%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.49%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    8.93%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   29.68%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.57%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_42, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_42 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_42 = 1 if oos_42 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_42

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_42
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       202        353 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        84      3,369 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       286      3,722 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_42 if counter==42

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_42
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         3         29 {txt}{c |}{res}        32 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         0         67 {txt}{c |}{res}        67 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         3         96 {txt}{c |}{res}        99 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 43, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3299{col 28}      319{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3618
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       85{col 28}      199{txt}  {c |}  {res}      284
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3384{col 28}      518{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3902

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.49%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   38.42%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   91.18%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   70.07%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   61.58%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.51%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    8.82%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   29.93%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.65%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_43, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_43 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_43 = 1 if oos_43 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_43

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_43
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       202        353 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        85      3,368 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       287      3,721 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_43 if counter==43

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_43
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}         3         34 {txt}{c |}{res}        37 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}         0         63 {txt}{c |}{res}        63 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}         3         97 {txt}{c |}{res}       100 

{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly probit vote eucdist114 lackqual dist_qual strongp outparty  if counter != 44, robust
{txt}
{com}. estat clas

{txt}Probit model for vote

{col 15}{hline 8} True {hline 8}
Classified {c |}{col 22}D{col 35}~D  {c |}{col 46}Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
{col 6}+{col 12}{c |} {res}     3357{col 28}      348{txt}  {c |}  {res}     3705
{txt}{col 6}-{col 12}{c |} {res}       89{col 28}      206{txt}  {c |}  {res}      295
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}
   Total   {c |} {res}     3446{col 28}      554{txt}  {c |}  {res}     4000

{txt}Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as vote != 0
{hline 50}
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D){res}   97.42%
{txt}Specificity                     Pr( -|~D){res}   37.18%
{txt}Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +){res}   90.61%
{txt}Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -){res}   69.83%
{txt}{hline 50}
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D){res}   62.82%
{txt}False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D){res}    2.58%
{txt}False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +){res}    9.39%
{txt}False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -){res}   30.17%
{txt}{hline 50}
Correctly classified                     {res}   89.08%
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. quietly predict oos_44, pr
{txt}
{com}. quietly gen pred_oos_44 = 0
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_44 = 1 if oos_44 >= .5
{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_44

{txt}confirmati {c |}      pred_oos_44
   on vote {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
        no {c |}{res}       206        349 {txt}{c |}{res}       555 
{txt}       yes {c |}{res}        89      3,364 {txt}{c |}{res}     3,453 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       295      3,713 {txt}{c |}{res}     4,008 

{txt}
{com}. tab vote pred_oos_44 if counter==44
{txt}no observations

{com}. 
. quietly gen pred_oos_all = .
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_1      if counter==1
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_2      if counter==2
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_3      if counter==3
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_4      if counter==4
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_5      if counter==5
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_6      if counter==6
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_7      if counter==7
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_8      if counter==8
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_9      if counter==9
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_10     if counter==10
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_11     if counter==11
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_12     if counter==12
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_13     if counter==13
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_14     if counter==14
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_15     if counter==15
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_16     if counter==16
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_17     if counter==17
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_18     if counter==18
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_19     if counter==19
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_20     if counter==20
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_21     if counter==21
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_22     if counter==22
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_23     if counter==23
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_24     if counter==24
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_25     if counter==25
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_26     if counter==26
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_27     if counter==27
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_28     if counter==28
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_29     if counter==29
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_30     if counter==30
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_31     if counter==31
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_32     if counter==32
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_33     if counter==33
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_34     if counter==34
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_35     if counter==35
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_36     if counter==36
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_37     if counter==37
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_38     if counter==38
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_39     if counter==39
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_40     if counter==40
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_41     if counter==41
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_42     if counter==42
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_43     if counter==43
{txt}
{com}. quietly replace pred_oos_all =  pred_oos_44     if counter==44
{txt}
{com}. lab var pred_oos_all "Out-of-Sample Forecasts"
{txt}
{com}. 
. save "C:\Users\mmak\Desktop\Forecasting 2016 RP v2 Segal Forecasts.dta"
{txt}file C:\Users\mmak\Desktop\Forecasting 2016 RP v2 Segal Forecasts.dta saved

{com}. 
. log close _all
      {txt}name:  {res}Forecast_PR
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\mmak\Desktop\Forecast_PR.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res}10 May 2016, 11:13:08
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}